Colorado State University’s first outlook for the 2024 hurricane season predicts a busy time period for forecasters, with around 23 named storms expected in the Atlantic basin, half of which may become hurricanes. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU, expressed confidence in this year’s outlook due to favorable atmospheric conditions and signals.
The report highlighted states and regions where the chance of a cyclone passing through is above or below climatological odds. The outlook shows a 62% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline and a 66% chance of a strike in the Caribbean. States in New England have the lowest probability, while Florida is almost guaranteed to be impacted by at least one cyclone within a 50-mile radius during the season.
Chances of cyclones making landfall across all coastal states are 10-20% higher than average, with Alabama seeing the highest increase. The landfall probabilities are linked to the expected Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is calculated based on a cyclone’s maximum sustained wind speed and longevity. The 2024 season is expected to produce an ACE value of 210 in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean, representing 170% of an average season.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross explained that a switch from El Niño to La Niña can influence storm patterns. In La Niña, colder Pacific water can create a pattern allowing storms to move farther west into the Caribbean, potentially affecting the Gulf and Florida. The probability of an area being impacted by a cyclone does not guarantee or preclude a direct strike, as seen in the Florida Panhandle in 2023 where a significant cyclone hit despite a low probability.
Norcross emphasized the importance of hurricane preparedness for those living in hurricane zones, urging individuals to plan how to protect their homes during the season. The unpredictability of hurricane paths and impacts underscores the need for continued vigilance and readiness in areas prone to tropical storms and hurricanes. With the 2024 season predicted to be active, it is essential for residents in hurricane-prone regions to stay informed and take necessary precautions to mitigate potential risks.
