Global population growth has surpassed 8 billion people in November 2022, but the rate of growth is slowing down. Some countries are experiencing explosive growth, while others are beginning to see their populations decline. An analysis of 236 countries and territories revealed that 40 of them have shrinking populations, with some experiencing a decline of 1 percent or more per year. This trend is primarily due to persistently low fertility rates, particularly in countries in Europe and East Asia, as well as outmigration and an aging population structure. South-eastern and Eastern European countries have seen their populations shrink rapidly due to these factors.
Countries with the fastest shrinking populations include Cook Islands, American Samoa, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Puerto Rico, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Estonia, and Federated States of Micronesia. The United States is growing at a moderate pace of 0.67 percent per year, while Russia has the 16th fastest shrinking population on the list. Russia has been facing challenging demographic trends such as low fertility, stagnant or slightly shrinking population, regional disparities, high mortality rates, and poor population health. The ongoing war could potentially boost Russia’s population if new territories were captured, but the reality is that the war is leading to more deaths, disabilities, and injuries, which will accelerate the shrinking of the population.
As countries continue to see declining fertility rates and aging populations, the trend of shrinking populations is likely to continue. Global population growth is expected to slow down in both absolute and relative terms, with more countries seeing their populations shrink. China experienced a population drop during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 due to falling fertility rates, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming years. Similarly, other East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea will also see their populations continue to fall due to very low fertility rates and an aging population structure. These demographic trends are expected to have significant impacts on labor forces, healthcare systems, and birth rates.
This analysis was conducted using data from the United States government’s World Factbook, published by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The map provided illustrates countries with shrinking populations in blue and those with growing populations in red. Countries with the fastest shrinking populations include a mix of regions around the world, with varying demographic challenges contributing to their population declines. As these trends continue, policymakers and researchers will need to address the implications of shrinking populations on various aspects of society, including workforce participation, healthcare needs, and social support systems. The impacts of these demographic shifts will likely be felt globally, with implications for economic growth, social stability, and sustainability.
