In this article, the authors discuss the importance of evidence-based strategic foresight in guiding policy decisions, particularly in times of uncertainty. They highlight the wealth of evidence available to European Union (EU) policymakers through the annual Strategic Foresight reports and emphasize the need to prioritize sustainability and resilience in shaping the future agenda of the EU. However, they express concern that the leaked draft of the Strategic Agenda for the next five years does not reflect these priorities, ignoring key insights from the EU’s foresight intelligence. The authors argue that aligning EU priorities with foresight and public opinion is crucial for ensuring a secure, prosperous, and sustainable future.
The EU has made significant progress in advancing its foresight capabilities over the last five years, with the establishment of a dedicated position for strategic foresight within the European Commission and the strengthening of future intelligence capabilities in its science unit and central Secretariat General. Annual reports have provided a comprehensive view of the threats and trends facing Europe, with sustainability, resilience, security, and wellbeing being constant themes. Despite this progress, the leaked draft of EU leaders’ top priorities for 2024-2029 fails to incorporate key aspects of the EU’s research and evidence, particularly in terms of sustainability and climate considerations.
The authors point out that the leaked Strategic Agenda overlooks crucial priorities identified by the EU’s own research and evidence, as well as public opinion. Recent EU Barometer polls show strong support among EU citizens for climate action and renewable energy investment, indicating a disconnect between public opinion and the priorities set forth by EU leaders. To address this gap, the authors call for a more foresight-based strategy for aligning EU priorities with evidence and public sentiment.
In light of the uncertainties and challenges facing Europe, the authors stress the importance of utilizing foresight methods to navigate complex trade-offs, unpredictability, and long-term planning. They suggest the establishment of a “chief foresighter” at the EU level to embed foresight practices across policy areas and institutions, ensuring a more comprehensive and evidence-based approach to decision-making. By being guided by the wealth of evidence available, the authors believe the EU can better position itself for a secure, prosperous, and sustainable future.
In conclusion, the authors highlight the urgent need for EU leaders to reconsider and align their priorities for 2024-2029 with the insights provided by strategic foresight reports and public opinion. By prioritizing sustainability, resilience, and wellbeing in shaping the EU’s future agenda, policymakers can ensure a more effective and evidence-based approach to addressing the challenges and uncertainties ahead. The authors emphasize the importance of foresight methods in guiding decision-making and call for a more holistic and forward-thinking strategy to secure a prosperous future for Europe.
