Vice President Kamala Harris has reshaped the 2024 electoral map, presenting more potential paths to 270 electoral votes than President Joe Biden had. The race is now focused on seven battleground states and one congressional district in Nebraska. Both Harris and former President Donald Trump have multiple viable paths to victory, with no current clear leader. Harris has successfully unified the Democratic Party and regained key constituencies, while Trump has lost some advantage in the quest for electoral votes.
The latest electoral outlook has shifted four states – Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina – from leaning Republican to toss-up battleground status. This change has taken away some of Trump’s advantage, leaving him with 219 electoral votes, 51 votes short of the 270 needed to win. Harris, on the other hand, has 225 electoral votes, 45 votes short of victory. Both candidates are focused on winning over swing states and securing the necessary electoral votes to claim the presidency.
Heading into the final weeks of summer and the Democratic National Convention, there are currently seven states and one Nebraska congressional district totaling 94 electoral votes rated as true toss-ups. The outcome of these battleground states will be crucial in determining the final result of the election. While the current outlook provides a snapshot of the electoral college landscape, it is not a prediction of the November election results. It is based on polling data, conversations with campaign advisers, and input from political operatives and members of Congress.
Harris has made some Sun Belt states more competitive, with her most direct route to 270 electoral votes likely involving winning the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, along with the Omaha-area congressional district in Nebraska. Trump’s path to victory involves retaining all states he won in 2020 and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania back to his column. Trump is focusing on preventing North Carolina from slipping away, as seen in his increased investment in television advertising in the state.
The current breakdown shows 188 electoral votes solidly Republican, 31 leaning Republican, 94 toss-up votes, 50 leaning Democratic, and 175 solidly Democratic electoral votes. The electoral map remains fluid, with both campaigns vying for crucial swing states. As the race tightens and the candidates intensify their efforts to secure support, the final outcome of the election remains uncertain, with the potential for unexpected shifts in key battleground states.
