A new survey of climate experts published in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment reveals that a majority of respondents believe that the Earth is heading towards a rise in global temperatures far exceeding the 2015 Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 to well-below 2°C. The survey, which included 211 respondents who are all authors on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), also shows that two-thirds of experts believe that achieving net zero CO2 emissions may be possible during the second half of this century. This indicates a level of optimism that mitigation efforts could potentially help bend the emissions curve towards meeting the Paris temperature goal. Additionally, a majority of respondents acknowledged the potential for atmospheric CO2 removal, with a median response indicating a belief that the technology could remove up to five gigatons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) per year by 2050.
Lead author Seth Wynes, a former postdoctoral fellow at Concordia University and now an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo, highlighted the importance of surveying top climate experts to gain insight into their perceptions of future climate outcomes. These experts also play a crucial role in climate change communication, influencing how decision-makers receive messages about climate change. The survey results indicate that experts are generally pessimistic about reaching the Paris targets given current policies, with 86% estimating warming above 2°C by 2100. The median estimate was 2.7°C, which is expected to have catastrophic consequences for the planet. However, co-author Damon Matthews noted that these responses are not a prediction of future warming but rather reflect the beliefs of the scientific community based on current policies.
Matthews emphasized that while the views of climate scientists are valuable, policy implementation and societal change will ultimately determine how quickly emissions can be reduced. He highlighted the importance of policymakers and the public in responding to the climate challenge, noting that the full range of outcomes is still on the table. The respondents were also asked to estimate their peers’ responses to the same questions, revealing a strong correlation between what individuals believe and what they perceive their peers believe. This bias could indicate overconfidence in their own beliefs, suggesting that it may be necessary for experts to reevaluate their perceptions and consider the views of their peers.
The survey results suggest that more needs to be done to avert the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While experts are aware of the challenges and potential solutions, including the use of atmospheric CO2 removal technology, achieving the Paris Agreement targets will require significant efforts and policy changes. Despite the grim predictions, there is still some optimism among experts that mitigation efforts could help steer us towards a more sustainable future. However, it will be crucial for policymakers to take action and for society as a whole to support initiatives aimed at reducing emissions and addressing climate change.
