Allan J. Lichtman, the American University historian known for accurately predicting the outcomes of U.S. elections, including Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, is cautious about making predictions for the 2024 presidential race. Lichtman, who uses a system of 13 keys to forecast elections, hinted that Democratic hopeful Kamala Harris may have the best chances of winning against Trump.
His prediction system requires answers to each key as “true” or “false,” and if the incumbent party gets a “false” in six of the 13 keys, it is likely to lose the White House. Lichtman has been correct in nine of the last 10 elections, with his pick losing in the atypical 2000 election where Al Gore won the popular vote but lost due to Supreme Court decisions.
Among Lichtman’s keys are factors like having an incumbent president running for office, the presence of a strong third-party candidate, and the state of the economy. As of now, the Democrats are down in only three keys needed to lose the election: “mandate,” “incumbency,” and “charisma,” with uncertainties about Harris’s appeal.
Lichtman dismisses polls as mere snapshots of the present that may not accurately predict Election Day outcomes, referencing how pollsters underestimated the pro-Trump vote in 2016 and may be doing the same for the pro-Democratic vote now. He also cautions against relying on conventional measures like campaign contributions, crowd sizes, or debate performances, as these did not ensure a win for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
In terms of his personal prediction, the author believes that Harris will easily win the popular vote, but anticipates potential challenges if Trump were to lose in the electoral college. Trump, who has a history of disputing election results and refusing to accept defeat, may contest the 2024 election outcomes by alleging illegal activities and refusing to commit to accepting a possible adverse result.
With Trump’s erratic behavior and disregard for democratic norms, the author predicts that the 2024 election could result in chaos and uncertainty. Trump’s refusal to play by the rules and his continued praise for insurrectionists raise concerns about the legitimacy of the election results and the potential for a contentious aftermath. Ultimately, the 2024 election could be tumultuous regardless of the outcome, with Harris facing significant challenges against a divisive opponent like Trump.
