The Preakness Stakes is the next stop on the Triple Crown circuit, taking place at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. With the surprise withdrawal of Muth, the morning line favorite for the race, Derby winner Mystik Dan is now expected to lead the eight-horse field. Historically, the Preakness serves as a test for Derby champions to see if they can secure another victory and continue on to the Belmont Stakes with a shot at the Triple Crown. Looking at the last 25 Preakness races, 10 out of 23 Derby winners who competed in the race came out as winners, showcasing a 43% success rate for Derby champions at the Preakness.
Despite being an unexpected long shot winner at the Derby, Mystik Dan faces skepticism about his abilities to repeat his performance. However, past races have shown that long-shot Derby winners have been able to secure a follow-up victory at the Preakness nine times out of 25 races. In terms of wet track performance, Mystik Dan has excelled on mud surfaces, winning the Southwest Stakes in February by a significant margin. The potential for rain at Pimlico on race day adds an additional element of uncertainty to the competition.
Trainer Bob Baffert, who is banned from the Kentucky Derby for violations, has a strong history of success at the Preakness, having won the race eight times. With his top contender Muth out of the race, his remaining entry, Imagination, is expected to be a major contender. Imagination’s strategy of shooting straight to the lead and maintaining the pace until the finish line mirrors Baffert’s previous winning tactics at the Preakness. The trend of trainers opting to bypass the Derby and target the Preakness with well-rested horses has improved the quality of the field in recent years.
Trainer Brad Cox’s decision to run Catching Freedom in the Preakness just two weeks after his fourth-place finish in the Derby goes against the trend of trainers avoiding short rest races. Cox’s statistics show that when he sends horses on short rest, the success rate is impressive, with 27% of them winning. Another trainer to watch is Chad Brown, known for his success at the Preakness with horses intentionally held out of the Derby. Tuscan Gold, his entry for this year’s race, has shown potential despite not having the points to qualify for the Derby.
Analyzing the field based on Beyer Speed Ratings, Mystik Dan has posted the highest figures in the field, indicating his speed and potential for success. Catching Freedom, Imagination, Just Steel, and Tuscan Gold are also contenders with strong Beyer ratings. Horses like Seize the Grey, Mugatu, and Uncle Heavy have lower ratings and would need significant improvement to compete in the race. With the race likely to have a modest pace, a horse that can stay close to the front and make a late move may have an advantage.
In conclusion, the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course promises an exciting and competitive race with the absence of Muth creating a wide-open field for the contenders. Trainers like Bob Baffert, Brad Cox, and Chad Brown bring top contenders to the race, each with their own strategy and track record of success. With the potential for wet weather and changing track conditions, adaptability will be key for the horses and jockeys competing in the race. As the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness carries high stakes and the chance for a new champion to emerge.
