The Gartner Hype Cycle is a graph that tracks the rise, fall, and rise again of new consumer technologies from inception through to wide adoption. Electric vehicles have recently been falling into the “Trough of Disillusionment”, where many consumer technologies flounder before recovering. The introduction of vehicles like the Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, and the Tesla Model S marked the “Technology Trigger” for electric vehicles, showing that EVs could be everyday cars and even better than internal combustion vehicles. The arrival of the Tesla Model 3 in 2017 led to other brands like Jaguar, Audi, and Porsche jumping into electrification, making EVs the “new thing”.
Despite initial optimism, EV sales have not been as strong as anticipated. In the UK, last month’s EV sales were disappointing, with the market share falling behind compared to the previous year. Even global sales, including Tesla deliveries, saw a decline in Q1 for the first time in four years. There has been recent anti-EV journalism highlighting early adopters who have switched back to diesel due to various reasons, such as high initial prices and potential challenges with ownership. This has led to many EVs entering the “Trough of Disillusionment”, similar to other technologies that struggle to reach the mainstream.
However, there are reasons to believe that EVs will eventually overcome this phase and enter the “Plateau of Productivity”. Inertia in the industry, coupled with investments in electrification and government incentives, suggests that EV adoption is unlikely to slow down. The need for more affordable EVs has been recognized by European manufacturers, with plans to introduce cheaper models, such as the Small BEV platform. Additionally, Chinese manufacturers like BYD and CATL are expected to significantly reduce the prices of LFP batteries by the end of 2024, which will further lower the cost of EVs.
While the current slowdown in EV sales is concerning, the shift towards more affordable options and advancements in battery technology are expected to drive a resurgence of interest in electric vehicles. The potential for EVs to become cheaper than internal combustion vehicles, coupled with lower running costs and increased clarity around the technology, suggests that EVs will rise again in popularity. By the end of the decade, electric cars are likely to become the majority vehicle purchase type in dominant EV markets like Europe and China, marking a shift towards a greener and more sustainable mode of transportation.
