In the upcoming state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading in the polls. In Thuringia, the AfD is ahead with 30%, while the incumbent Christian Democrats (CDU) are polling at 21%. The AfD has been labeled as right-wing extremist by Germany’s security service, with its leader Björn Höcke being convicted for using banned Nazi slogans. Concerns have been raised about the AfD’s trivialization of Nazism and its potential impact on memorials such as the Buchenwald Memorial, which commemorates the victims of the Nazi concentration camp.
Despite warnings from experts about the dangers of the far-right AfD, supporters at the party’s rallies seem undeterred. The AfD’s campaign rallies emphasize the need for patriotism and portray Germany as a victim in history, echoing sentiments of normalcy and friendship for the country. However, analysts caution that the party’s agenda has fostered a hostile environment towards minorities in eastern Germany, leading to a rise in racist attacks. Businesses in the region are also facing challenges in attracting skilled foreign workers due to the AfD’s influence.
The issue of migration and foreign policy is a key topic in the upcoming elections, with parties on both the far-left and far-right calling for negotiations with Russia and changes to migration policies. In Thuringia, a new populist left-wing party led by Sahra Wagenknecht is critical of the current government’s policies but has not offered clear solutions. The recent knife attack in Solingen involving a suspected extremist from Syria has reignited debates on immigration policies, with calls for tighter regulations from opposition parties.
The AfD’s strong performance in the polls has raised concerns about potential alliances between parties to keep the far-right out of power. While the CDU and BSW could join forces to counter the AfD, their differing stances on key issues may pose challenges to forming a coalition. The upcoming elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg are expected to have a significant impact on national politics and foreign policy, with the results influencing the direction of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government.
Historically, Germany has required leading parties to form coalitions due to a system designed to prevent extremist parties from gaining majority control. While the AfD may not enter government, its influence is expected to be significant. Analysts predict challenges for the Social Democrats and their coalition partners, the Green Party and the Free Democrats, in the face of the AfD’s rise. Chancellor Scholz will be closely monitoring the eastern state elections to gauge the political landscape ahead of the next national election in 2025.
