In the media, there is intense speculation about what a potential second term for Donald Trump would look like. Trump has a good chance of winning the next election, in contrast to what the press believed a few months ago. On the other hand, Joe Biden’s direction as an incumbent president is clear. Trump’s statements have varied over time, from claims of retribution to a focus on success and common sense. It is unclear whether he will stick to Republican orthodoxy on issues like abortion and Social Security, or if he has already sent the message he wanted to his base.
There are three potential scenarios for a second Trump term. One possibility is a return of the Limited Trump, constrained by Congress, the courts, and his own popularity. Another potential outcome is the Full Trump, with a hard-line agenda including building a border wall and further shifting the judiciary to the right. However, author Michael Brendan Dougherty considers this option unlikely, as it may not be sustainable. The final scenario is a Four-Year Siege, in which Democrats constantly investigate Trump and potentially refuse to invite him to give a State of the Union address.
The most likely outcome, according to the author, is the Limited Trump scenario. Trump has likely learned valuable lessons about navigating the powers of the presidency during his first term. He was disciplined and evasive during a recent interview, indicating an understanding of how to tailor his message to different audiences. While Trump may resort to offensive or over-the-top language to dominate news cycles, his actual policy changes may be more measured, such as changes to immigration policies and tariffs towards China.
The Full Trump scenario is considered less likely due to Trump’s tendency to take credit for major accomplishments. A Cabinet full of heavyweights could potentially drive significant change, but Trump is known to be the star of any given venture. The Four-Year Siege scenario is seen as the least likely, as it would require a significant turning of the tide in terms of public opinion. If Trump were to secure a second term, there would be a mandate to move forward, despite expected resistance from Democrats and the media.
Ultimately, the potential outcomes of a second Trump term are subject to debate and speculation. Trump’s ability to navigate challenges and leverage his position as an incumbent president will play a significant role in determining the direction of his policies. Despite his penchant for controversy and drama, Trump may focus on achieving tangible policy changes while avoiding major battles that he cannot win. The future political landscape will be shaped by the decisions and actions taken in the coming years.
