Bitcoin investors are currently facing a challenging situation as they attempt to recover from a two-month price low for BTC. Despite a 6.2% recovery from this week’s low, BTC has struggled to surpass crucial trendlines. The recent price rebound has been limited due to strong resistance, with Bitcoin experiencing a 23% drop from its recent all-time high in April and May. BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes has predicted that Bitcoin will be trading below $70,000 in August, with $60,000 needing to be convincingly surpassed for a possible recovery. However, resistance areas have so far been winning over the bulls, with Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average acting as a market support since October 2023 and potentially indicating a downtrend.
The candlesticks have gone under the 100-day moving average, signaling a possible downtrend, with the Trading Indicator suggesting that bulls are facing strong challenges at this level. Reclaiming the 100-day moving average could potentially lead to a short squeeze, according to Keith Alan. To add to the challenges, on the path to recovery, the BTC price must also overcome another obstacle: the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP). STH-RP refers to the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders who are more speculative in nature and includes wallets that store BTC for 155 days or less. As of May 1, STH-RP was at $59,684, creating a new trendline in close proximity to $60,000.
Cubic Analyst CEO Caleb Franzen has included STH-RP in his selection of resistance levels that need to be cleared for a possible recovery. Franzen highlighted the importance of a daily close above $61k as a personal line in the sand for ‘risk-on’, indicating that there is still plenty of work to be done for Bitcoin to overcome these challenges. Overall, Bitcoin investors are currently facing a tough challenge as they try to navigate the cryptocurrency’s recent price fluctuations. Despite attempts at recovery from a two-month price low, the limited price rebound and strong resistance have made it difficult for BTC to surpass crucial trendlines and resume an upward trajectory.
With Bitcoin experiencing a significant drop from its recent all-time high and predictions that it will be trading below $70,000 in August, the road to recovery seems challenging. Resistance areas are proving to be a hurdle for bulls, with the 100-day moving average acting as a market support and potential indicator of a downtrend. Additionally, the need to overcome the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) and other essential resistance levels adds to the complexity of the situation. Despite these challenges, there is still hope for Bitcoin investors as they work towards overcoming these obstacles and potentially leading to a short squeeze.
