The Biden administration is dismissing Netanyahu’s announcement of a ground offensive into Rafah as political bluster fueled by his precarious position at home. There has been public questioning of Netanyahu’s claim that a date has been set for an offensive, with senior administration officials stating that no such date has been communicated to them. Privately, it is believed that Netanyahu’s statements are more about bravado than actual plans for military action.
Netanyahu is facing pressure to eliminate Hamas while also negotiating a ceasefire to free Israeli hostages. Israeli officials argue that there are still four Hamas battalions in Rafah that need to be removed. Additionally, Netanyahu’s coalition government is facing potential fracturing after the war ends, adding to the urgency of his statements regarding military action in Rafah.
The US has pushed back against Netanyahu’s plans for Rafah, emphasizing that they have not seen a comprehensive plan from the Israelis for such an operation. There are concerns about the logistics of moving the estimated 1.4 million civilians out of Rafah before any military action can take place. US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, have stated that they do not see any imminent operation in Rafah.
In a call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant indicated that Israel is still developing a plan for a potential invasion of Rafah and making preparations, but did not mention a specific date for the operation. President Biden remains sensitive to Netanyahu’s political standing and his ultra-conservative government but has refrained from commenting publicly on Israeli politics throughout the conflict.
In private conversations, Biden has criticized Israel’s hardline government and its opposition to a two-state solution. There have been efforts to press Israeli officials for details on how they plan to move civilians out of Rafah in preparation for any military operation. Israeli officials have not provided comprehensive answers to these questions, leading to follow-up discussions and a planned in-person meeting next week.
Israeli officials have argued that not going into Rafah would undermine the efforts made to root out Hamas during the conflict. They believe Hamas would rebuild from the remaining battalions in Rafah if left untouched. Overall, there are ongoing discussions and preparations between US and Israeli officials regarding the potential military action in Rafah, amid concerns about the political implications and logistical challenges involved.
