Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has made claims in an interview that Ukraine’s invasion of Russia is an attempt to provoke Moscow into using nuclear weapons. He stated that such escalation by Ukraine is intended to push Russia towards using tactical nuclear weapons, as Ukraine would allegedly be happy if this were to happen. Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggested that Ukraine was trying to goad Moscow into taking nuclear action in order to further rally a united front against Russia. He also warned that such actions could potentially alienate any sympathetic countries and allies of Russia.
Concerns over nuclear escalation in the conflict in Ukraine have been heightened since the war began over two years ago, with Putin previously warning of severe consequences for those who threaten Russia. The potential for a tactical nuclear strike has been raised by experts following Ukraine’s incursion last week, but it is not anticipated at this time. Lukashenko also issued warnings of potential nuclear action by Belarus if the enemy crosses the border of the Union State, formed through an agreement between Belarus and Russia. This alliance forms a “supranational union” binding the two nations under a tight alliance.
Despite their close ties, Belarus has not sent troops into Ukraine to aid Russia in its ongoing invasion, and has only allowed Russian soldiers to deploy from its borders into Ukraine. Lukashenko has moved one-third of Belarus’ military to the shared border with Ukraine in response to alleged troop buildup by Kyiv. This move is seen as potentially pre-staging forces for a possible second front on behalf of Russia. Lukashenko’s comments are also seen as a tactic to put psychological pressure on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and create uncertainty about potential joint actions by Russia and Belarus.
The exact number of Belarusian troops at the border remains unclear, but estimates suggest around 20,000 may have been moved. Despite Lukashenko’s statements, the situation at the Ukraine-Belarus border remains unchanged according to a spokesperson for the Ukrainian border service. Lukashenko’s rhetoric is perceived as an attempt to escalate the situation in order to please Russia, but there has been no observed increase in the number of equipment or personnel of Belarusian units near the border. The close military alignment and integration between Russia and Belarus suggest that Lukashenko’s comments were likely coordinated with Putin, serving both to intimidate Ukraine and create uncertainty about future actions.
