Former President Donald Trump has faced bad news with the release of two polls indicating that his felony conviction could impact his chances of defeating President Joe Biden in the upcoming election. Trump, who was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records, has dismissed the outcome as a “disgrace” and maintains his innocence, suggesting that the real verdict will come on Election Day. One poll by Reuters/Ipsos showed that 10 percent of Republican voters were less likely to vote for Trump due to his conviction, while 35 percent were more likely to vote for him regardless.
Another poll conducted by YouGov found that among independent voters, 25 percent were less likely to support Trump after the verdict, while 18 percent were more likely. The majority of independents, 56 percent, said the verdict would have no impact on their choice of president. The same poll showed that Biden had a slight lead over Trump, with 41 percent of respondents favoring Biden and 39 percent favoring Trump. Trump’s campaign spokesperson highlighted the former president’s fundraising success following the conviction, but polls suggest that Trump’s conviction may have a negative impact on his campaign.
The YouGov poll also revealed that 50 percent of Americans agreed with the jury’s verdict, 47 percent believed Trump received a fair trial, and 48 percent of independent voters agreed that Trump was guilty. Multiple polls conducted before the verdict hinted that Trump’s status as a felon could sway the outcome of the election, with earlier polls showing that he could lose between 5 and 7 percent of the overall vote with a conviction. Analysts suggest that undecided voters in swing states could be the key demographic impacted by Trump’s conviction, potentially causing support for him to dwindle after his sentencing.
The upcoming election, which may be decided by a small number of votes in battleground states, could be significantly affected by Trump’s felony conviction. The polls indicate that Trump’s standing among Republican voters and independent voters may have been impacted by the verdict, with some voters less likely to support him as a result. The outcome of the election remains uncertain, with both candidates having a narrow margin of support in the polls conducted after Trump’s conviction. As the campaign progresses, the impact of the conviction on Trump’s candidacy and the overall election results will become increasingly clear.
