Summarize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in Arabic <\/p>\n
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A common pitfall of sports bettors is overreacting to what we last saw. For obvious reasons, it can lead to a misguided view of a particular team or player, ignoring the larger sample size of an entire body of work.\u00a0<\/p>\n
And with so few games on the sports calendar, nearly all fans saw the Mavericks dominate the Kings on the road in Wednesday\u2019s play-in game.\u00a0<\/p>\n
At the expense of making that grave mistake, I am backing the Mavs on Friday as a 6.5-point underdog at Memphis. Simply, it feels like too many points for a game that I think will come down to the wire.\u00a0<\/p>\n
First, I think Memphis has fundamental issues and will never be a true contender with Ja Morant as its best player. The Grizzlies fired their head coach late in the season and that has not changed anything.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Grizz are 7-22-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 30 games. That means they are performing below expectations, which is what we are analyzing for Friday\u2019s do-or-die elimination game.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Plus, sharp handicappers look to capitalize on injuries that fly below the radar, and I believe we have one here.<\/p>\n
Memphis is without Jaylen Wells, who is only a rookie but is 6-foot-8 and the team\u2019s best perimeter defender. He wreaked havoc for opposing scorers all season and the Grizzlies miss that.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This Dallas season has defined \u201ctumultuous,\u201d given the Luka Doncic trade and numerous injuries, which included losing Kyrie Irving for the season.<\/p>\n
However, the Mavs are now much healthier and have the necessary size and lineup flexibility.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively will man the paint and defend 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, while Anthony Davis has the height and athleticism to contain Jaren Jackson Jr., who can score from all three levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Dallas coach Jason Kidd used four wing players off the bench in the win over Sacramento, and he will utilize those options to defend Morant and Desmond Bane.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The schedule certainly favors the home team, which last played Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Dallas must play two road games in a span of three days. However, the Mavs had a fairly lopsided win and the bench allowed Jason Kidd to prevent overusing the starters. Plus, in the Play-In\u2019s brief history, the road teams on Friday have performed sufficiently against the spread.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Betting on the NBA? <\/p>\n
I am 37-25-1 ATS in this Post sports section, and I will look for another win with the Mavs and the points.<\/p>\n
The play: Mavericks +6.5 (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook)<\/p>\n
Why Trust New York Post Betting<\/p>\n
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He\u2019s also the rare personality who has documented success \u2013 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Summarize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in Arabic New York Post may be compensated and\/or receive an affiliate commission if you click or buy through our links. Featured pricing is subject to change. A common pitfall of sports bettors is overreacting to what we last saw. For obvious reasons, it can lead<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":281462,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-281461","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=281461"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281461\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":281463,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281461\/revisions\/281463"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/281462"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=281461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=281461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=281461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}