Summarize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in Arabic <\/p>\n
\t\tNew York Post may be compensated and\/or receive an affiliate commission if you click or buy through our links. Featured pricing is subject to change.<\/p>\n
In many seasons, the Super Bowl selection for this space is made at around 6 p.m. on the Thursday before the Big Game, just in time to make the print deadline.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not the case this time. Rather, this pick already has been published, back on Sept. 4 in The Post\u2019s 2024 NFL special section.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Those who bought into the prognostication of Eagles over Chiefs in Sunday\u2019s Super Bowl would be holding a +6600 (66\/1) ticket at BetMGM and have the opportunity to either double down or hedge to guarantee a sizable profit.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It would be great if I were one of those people, but I\u2019ve had too many of my preseason Super Bowl teams end up under .500 or with an injured quarterback over the years to want to tie up too much money for five months on a lottery ticket.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The other thing is that this bet has not yet won. All the Eagles have to do is defeat the Chiefs, the two-time defending champions who are on the cusp of the NFL\u2019s first Super Bowl three-peat. They have to find a way to solve Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, arguably a top-three quarterback-coach duo in NFL history.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Here are some of the reasons I believe the Eagles will make it happen.\u00a0<\/p>\n
l\u200aSaquon Barkley: The former Giant who\u2019s causing owner John Mara to lose a lot of sleep has transformed the Philadelphia offense. It now has a bellcow runner operating behind an excellent offensive line, and his dominance only serves to make the Eagles\u2019 other weapons \u2014 A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith \u2014 all the more dangerous.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Barkley ran for 2,005 yards, making him the ninth to hit that milestone. He had needed 101 yards to break Eric Dickerson\u2019s 40-year-old record but was held out of the meaningless last game along with most of the Eagles\u2019 other starters.\u00a0<\/p>\n
How great has Barkley been? He averaged 5.8 yards per carry in the regular season and has upped that to 6.7 yards per carry in the playoffs. It\u2019s easy to do the math and see how simple it is for the Eagles to get first downs, move the chains, keep the clock moving and the ball out of Mahomes\u2019 hands.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But more than being just a grinder, Barkley is also a home-run hitter. In the Nov. 24 game against the Rams in L.A., he had touchdown runs of 70 and 72 yards. His dance card also includes runs of 78 yards (in the playoffs vs. the Rams), 68, 65, 60 (in the playoffs vs. the Commanders), 59 and 55.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Defenses can\u2019t stop him even when they know he\u2019s getting the ball. The playoff touchdown vs. Washington came on the Eagles\u2019 first play from scrimmage in the game. The 70-yarder in L.A. came on the first play of the second half.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The overall numbers are mind-boggling \u2014 14 games (out of 19) with at least 100 yards, eight games with at least 146 yards, an average of 129 yards per game.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense, which was good against the run in the regular season, has been handled in the playoffs. The Texans ran for 149 yards on 5.1 yards per carry in the divisional round, and the Bills rolled up 147 ground yards on 4.6 yards per carry before they mysteriously turned away from James Cook.\u00a0<\/p>\n
l\u200aThe refs: Of course we\u2019re going here! The officiating dynamic has dominated the past two weeks of conversation heading into the Super Bowl.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This all started two years ago in Super Bowl LVII when a defensive holding penalty against the Eagles\u2019 James Bradberry basically sealed Kansas City\u2019s 38-35 victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Then the 2023 season saw a handful of decisive calls go the Chiefs\u2019 way. In this column we had some fun with the conspiracy theory that the league was playing up the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift relationship, was profiting from the increased ratings and jersey sales to the Swifties, and was hell-bent on getting Taylor and her millions of fans to the Super Bowl.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This past season, there were more curious calls, such as the one in the Raiders game when Clay Martin called a game-ending illegal shift instead of a false start that would have nullified a Raiders fumble and given them a chance at a long field goal to win the game.\u00a0<\/p>\n
And in the playoffs, all eyes have been on two personal foul penalties on the Texans on hits on Mahomes (ESPN\u2019s Troy Aikman went nuts on one of them), and a disputed catch and controversial spot in the Bills game.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In the past few days, Rich Eisen, NFL Network\u2019s leading man for 21 years, gave comedian Bill Burr a platform on his radio show to question whether the games are fixed. Commissioner Roger Goodell trashed the \u201cridiculous theory,\u201d not something you usually hear in a state-of-the-league address. And Scott Green, the chief of the refs union, said Goodell was \u201cspot on\u201d and that it\u2019s \u201cinsulting and preposterous to hear conspiracy theories that somehow 17 officiating crews consisting of 138 officials are colluding to assist one team.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
As Shakespeare wrote in \u201cHamlet\u201d about 620 years ago: \u201cThe lady doth protest too much.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
But seriously, the point is this: The heat of the spotlight is on the refs and every call made in this game. The reputation and integrity of the NFL is in question. I believe the Eagles will get a fair whistle, a fair flag, a fair replay review. And if they do, that should be enough because \u2026\u00a0<\/p>\n
l\u200aThe analytics \u2026 of the game slightly favor the Eagles.\u00a0<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t typically devote a lot of words to the deeper numbers in the explanation of my picks during the season, but there\u2019s one stat that looks to be more important than others. That\u2019s DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average. This metric measures the success of an NFL team compared to the league average by adjusting for down and distance, strength of the opponent, even field conditions.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In overall DVOA for the regular season plus playoffs, the Eagles ranked third and Chiefs sixth. In the regular season, it was Eagles fifth and Chiefs eighth.\u00a0<\/p>\n
On offense, the Chiefs ranked eighth for the season and the Eagles 13th. Defensively, Philadelphia was No. 1 and Kansas City No. 12.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Betting on the NFL? <\/p>\n
Most of those numbers give the Eagles a small edge. Not much, but when the spread is this small, it could be enough. At the very least, it gives you the notion that the Chiefs aren\u2019t an almighty and unbeatable team.\u00a0<\/p>\n
l\u200aThe parallel: Lastly, this Super Bowl matchup has a similar vibe to Eagles-Patriots in February 2018. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were the quarterback-coach gold standard, the Patriots had won five previous Super Bowls, and the way they did it (impossible interception vs. Seattle and 28-3 comeback vs. Atlanta) made it look as if they couldn\u2019t possibly lose.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Eagles beat them 41-33 with backup QB Nick Foles and the legendary Philly Special trick play.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The picks: Eagles +1.5 and Over 48.5 (BetMGM)<\/p>\n
Eagles 30, Chiefs 27.\u00a0<\/p>\n
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Eagles (Locks 10-11 in 2024-25).\u00a0<\/p>\n
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK: 3-1 overall (2-0 sides, 1-1 Over\/Under).\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Summarize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in Arabic New York Post may be compensated and\/or receive an affiliate commission if you click or buy through our links. Featured pricing is subject to change. In many seasons, the Super Bowl selection for this space is made at around 6 p.m. on the Thursday<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":199596,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-199595","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199595","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=199595"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199595\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":199597,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199595\/revisions\/199597"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/199596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=199595"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=199595"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globetimeline.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=199595"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}