Summarize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in Arabic <\/p>\n
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Week 18 in the NFL is the one where you take everything you\u2019ve learned to this point and put it in a blender.<\/p>\n
There are all kinds of different angles and motivations taking place: teams locked into playoff berths resting star players or multiple starters \u2026 teams that need to win to make the playoffs and others who are trying to climb the seeding ladder to avoid a dangerous wild-card matchup \u2026 teams that are tanking for the draft.<\/p>\n
Many of the games include at least one of these factors and we\u2019ll point them out as we go along. But here are a few general things to keep in mind:<\/p>\n
\u2014 Not all \u201ctanking\u201d teams lose. In the past two weeks, the Raiders and Giants have given up the No. 1-overall pick with victories.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Not all \u201cresting\u201d teams lose. According to research by Steve Makinen of VSiN, over the past 13 years, locked-in playoff teams sitting key starters in the final week are 13-23 outright but 20-14-2 against the spread. Consider that before laying double digits to the 15-1 Chiefs.<\/p>\n
Here we go, and good luck for a profitable last stand for the 2024 regular season.<\/p>\n
Saturday<\/p>\n
Browns (+19) over RAVENS<\/p>\n
Ravens clinch the AFC North and No. 3 seed with a win, but would also get it with a Steelers loss later in the day. Not sure how hard John Harbaugh will push for a blowout. Once the lead gets to two touchdowns \u2014 or if Lamar Jackson takes a hit \u2014 will he prefer to speed up the ending? The Browns don\u2019t figure to offer much resistance, particularly if Myles Garrett is out, but a final score such as 31-13 doesn\u2019t cover this number.<\/p>\n
Bengals (-1.5) over STEELERS<\/p>\n
This is one of my favorite Week 18 scenarios \u2014 a team playing for survival vs. one that\u2019s already in the playoffs and is trying to improve seeding. Bengals need a win then have the Broncos and Dolphins lose Sunday. That\u2019s a lot to ask, but we might be witnessing the start of a miracle run by a Bengals team that was 4-8 after a 44-38 home loss to the Steelers.<\/p>\n
Sunday<\/p>\n
Giants (+3) over EAGLES<\/p>\n
This is the first test of Makinen\u2019s stat above. The Eagles are resting Saquon Barkley with 2,005 yards instead of letting him take aim at Eric Dickerson\u2019s record of 2,105 in 1984. With Jalen Hurts also out, this looks like a case where coach Nick Sirianni declared the regular season over after last week\u2019s 41-7 win over the Cowboys that clinched the NFC No. 2 seed.<\/p>\n
The Giants were desperate to break their 100-season-record 10-game losing streak last week and now will be looking to carry a winning streak into the offseason, no matter the draft-position ramifications.<\/p>\n
JETS (+1) over Dolphins<\/p>\n
Miami needs a win and a Broncos loss to the Chiefs to make the postseason. If the scoreboard shows bad news from Denver, the Dolphins could have a letdown in the low-30s, after-dark temps in windy MetLife. As it is, they are looking at Tyler Huntley in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa.<\/p>\n
Hoping that, like the Giants last week, the Jets have a \u201cpride game\u201d in them at home after their embarrassing 40-14 loss at Buffalo.<\/p>\n
FALCONS (-8.5) over Panthers<\/p>\n
Atlanta needs a win and a Tampa Bay loss to win the NFC South, and it likely will become apparent early that the latter won\u2019t happen. Still, I\u2019d expect the Falcons to keep playing because their offensive stars should be enjoying success against Carolina\u2019s NFL-worst scoring defense.<\/p>\n
Commanders (-6) over COWBOYS<\/p>\n
A Washington win would guarantee the sixth seed and a better matchup than the 7-vs.-2 in Philadelphia. The Commanders have had so little recent success, I believe Dan Quinn will keep the pedal to metal against a CeeDee Lamb-less Cowboys team.<\/p>\n
Bears (+10) over PACKERS<\/p>\n
Green Bay needs Washington to lose. If that scenario starts to go by the wayside, I doubt Matt LaFleur will let Jordan Love take too many unnecessary hits from angry Bears. Also, Chicago is in the spot the Giants were in last week \u2014 professional football players trying to end a 10-game losing streak.<\/p>\n
Jaguars (+5) over COLTS<\/p>\n
A meaningless matchup for the playoffs. The Jags have some draft considerations, currently sitting at No. 5, but they don\u2019t seem too concerned about that. Give me the points against a team that gave up 45 points to the Giants.<\/p>\n
Bills (-2.5) over PATRIOTS<\/p>\n
Patriots currently own the No. 1 pick in the draft, and I believe they will hold on to it after the Raiders and Giants let it slip. The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed, but I\u2019m happy to ride with any iteration of Buffalo\u2019s 53-man roster at this price.<\/p>\n
BUCCANEERS (-13.5) over Saints<\/p>\n
The Bucs would clinch the NFC South with a win, and I\u2019ll lay whatever price is necessary on Baker Mayfield & Co. to do it. In their 5-1 surge, four of the wins have been by 15 points or more.<\/p>\n
Texans (+1.5) over TITANS<\/p>\n
This one\u2019s both a psychological and practical play. The Texans are locked in as the No. 4 seed in the AFC, but after last week\u2019s 31-2 loss to Baltimore, coach DeMeco Ryans has to do something to raise the mood heading into the playoffs. So I expect a strong effort here against a Titans team that\u2019s 2-14 ATS, even if it\u2019s Davis Mills in place of C.J. Stroud.<\/p>\n
Chiefs (+10.5) over BRONCOS<\/p>\n
On what planet would the 15-1 Chiefs be double-digit underdogs in a game? On Planet Week 18. Denver gets a wild card with a win or tie, but even with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Chris Jones sitting, there will be plenty of brand-name Chiefs on the field playing with quality backup QB Carson Wentz.<\/p>\n
CARDINALS (-4) over 49ers<\/p>\n
Two teams that are out of contention. I have a soft spot for QB Josh Dobbs and would back him if not for a prohibitive 49ers injury report. The Cards have one last shot to show out for the home fans, and the visitors might not have anything left at this point.<\/p>\n
Chargers (-4.5) over RAIDERS<\/p>\n
The Chargers are the sixth seed in the AFC but can move to five with a win if the Steelers lose Saturday. I need to pick this game now, so since I\u2019m backing Cincinnati, I have to presume it will be all systems go for Jim Harbaugh here. If the Steelers win, you\u2019ll have a much different point spread Sunday morning.<\/p>\n
RAMS (+6.5) over Seahawks<\/p>\n
This is a tricky one. The Rams are the NFC third seed but could drop to fourth with a loss. It may not be enough to risk Matthew Stafford\u2019s health but it does have some value. This spread is priced as if the Rams will punt on the game, but I\u2019m not there \u2014 and I\u2019d be comfortable backing Jimmy Garoppolo if Sean McVay starts him.<\/p>\n
Betting on the NFL? <\/p>\n
LIONS (-3) over Vikings<\/p>\n
Game 272 might be the best of them all. The scary part if you want to back the Lions is that though both offenses are excellent, the Vikings also have a good defense and the Lions don\u2019t. But this has been the year of the Lions, and I\u2019m figuring Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will figure out how to come away with the NFC North title and NFC No. 1 seed.<\/p>\n
Best bets: Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams Lock of the week: Chiefs (Locks 9-8 in 2024) Last week: 9-7 overall, 2-1 Best Bets<\/p>\n
Why Trust New York Post Betting<\/p>\n
Dave Blezow\u2019s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post\u2019s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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