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The sheer volume of games and menu offerings presents profitable opportunities for sports bettors. The house gets to charge the vig, but we get to pick the wagers.
Additionally, prop bets are becoming increasingly popular so it’s also possible to uncover angles that go undetected.
For example, if prop bets were rare, oddsmakers would notice those types of wagers more easily than they do now. Instead, sharp bets are diluted with the masses.
Tracking lineups and monitoring usage is what gives the bettor a potential advantage. There just is not enough time or staffing for sportsbooks to research every player prop and adjust for matchups, injuries and load management. Oddsmakers are relegated to relying on season averages and, in theory, we can pick off betting value.
“What we are putting out there is based on averages and stats, and that’s not always an exact science. So, there’s always going to be weaker spots for the guys who do deeper dives,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Only Players. “But we are known for putting out a lot of content, so that’s what we do.”
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Odds
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotalTrail Blazers+8 (-108)+275o212 (-105)Magic-8 (-112)-345u212 (-115)Odds via DraftKings
One attack plan I often implement is leaning on the Orlando Magic’s defense.
The Over/Unders for their games have adjusted to their strong defense and limited offense, but the prop bets do present opportunities.
The Magic allow the fewest attempted 3-pointers per game (30.2) in the entire NBA.
Add that to the fourth-best defensive rating, and their opponents are likely to make fewer 3-pointers than they normally do. That’s where oddsmakers have not quite adjusted.
Betting on the NBA?
On Thursday, the Magic host the Portland Trail Blazers.
Portland can be a tricky handicap because certain guys can offset any defense. Specifically, Anfernee Simons can resemble Steph Curry at times with limitless range and quick shots off the dribble.
I would much rather focus on Deni Avdija, whose made-3-pointers prop is typically 1.5. He will likely have a solid volume of attempts but this is where relying on Orlando’s defense comes into play.
Because of that, I would play Under 1.5 made 3-pointers for this specific game.
BEST BET: Deni Avdija Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-145, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
