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The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Sunday’s and Monday’s Wild Card Round slate.
Broncos (+8.5) over BILLS
Denver’s defense is too good to be this big of an underdog on Sunday afternoon.
Denver closed the year as the No. 6 overall team in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), while the Bills were No. 4.
There’s good reason to be skeptical of a rookie quarterback in the playoffs, especially on the road.
Rookies are 5-17 straight up on the road in the playoffs, but I look at that stat as slightly misleading.
That record includes injury fill-ins Skylar Thompson and Connor Cook as well as an injury exiting Brock Purdy and Mac Jones, making the record a slightly less embarrassing 5-13.
Still if either Nix or Jayden Daniels win on the road on Sunday, they will be the first rookies to win on the road in the playoffs since Russell Wilson.
Still, Nix isn’t going to be relied on to make big plays; their defense does plenty of the work for him.
If we are omitting the Broncos’ dominant performance over the Chiefs’ backups in Week 18, Denver is allowing the sixth least yards per carry in the NFL from Week 12-17.
They also have the third most interceptions during that same time span (seven).
The Bills, who have an elite offense across the board, shouldn’t have a cakewalk in-store this weekend.
They’re allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 28th in the NFL (Weeks 12-17), and their run defense is just slightly above average in that same time span, according to FTN’s Stathub.
They still win, 27-20, but we’re taking the points.
EAGLES (-5.5) over Packers
Philadelphia is at full health coming into Sunday’s perhaps best matchup of the weekend.
Normally, the Packers would be the bet here, as they’re ranked No. 3 overall in DVOA while the Eagles are No. 5 overall.
I just see this matchup as a nightmare for Green Bay on top of some poor injury luck to close the season.
Christian Watson is out with a torn ACL, and Jordan Love looks to have a hand injury.
There’s no telling how that will affect the Packers on Sunday, but we do know that the Eagles’ elite pass defense was going to give the Packers fits anyway.
Philadelphia has allowed just 5.6 yards per pass attempt since Week 10, the best figure in the NFL by far.
Their defense is also rated No. 3 in EPA (Expected Points Added) against the run, behind only elite defenses in Minnesota and Houston.
Philadelphia and Green Bay should be an excellent game on Sunday, but we’re taking the more reliable offense.
Commanders (+3) over BUCCANEERS
Favorite bet of the weekend, the Washington Commanders match up wonderfully with the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium this weekend.
Since Week 10, the Washington Commanders have the fifth best pass defense in the NFL in yards per attempt and are allowing just a 58 percent completion rate, the best figure in the NFL.
The Buccaneers really rely on Baker Mayfield to cook for their offense through the air, but I’m not so sure that’s the best strategy, especially when you factor in Marshon Lattimore’s resurgence since being introduced to the lineup.
Having him for the stretch run is a boon for their chances to win this game.
Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and they struggle in short yardage, while the Washington defense was the best in the NFL on fourth down.
Washington wins outright.
Monday
Vikings (-2.5) over Rams
It’s hard to imagine that the Rams are fully focused on this game, with tragedy striking the Los Angeles area and the game being moved to Arizona.
Let’s be real, though; the Rams didn’t have a home-field advantage anyway; it’s really just about the stress of their homes being in danger and moving their families out of dodge from wildfires.
Minnesota lost this season to the Rams but that’s just about where the statistical case for the Rams ends.
Betting on the NFL?
They are rated No. 17 in DVOA compared to No. 7 for Minnesota.
They also have a much better defense, ranking No. 2 in DVOA compared to the Rams’ No. 26.
That’s the worst defense of any team in the playoffs and only one slot ahead of the historically bad Bengals’ defense.
Anything is possible in the NFL, but I’m not expecting lighting to strike twice for the Rams against the Vikings.
Season: 113-131-3.
