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INDIANAPOLIS — If this, then that. If that, then this. If this and that, then what?
The NFL free agent quarterback picture crystallized ever so slightly Tuesday — if you believe that head coaches and general managers weren’t selling smokescreens at the scouting combine — but that only removed a few seats and drove up competition for others in the inevitable game of musical chairs that will start March 10.
Which starting-caliber quarterbacks will be available? Which teams will be shopping hungry?
The Steelers “ideally would like to keep one of” Justin Fields or Russell Wilson, and have had conversations with representatives for both free agents. But neither has re-signed yet and both could want to find out their market price.
“Until that happens,” general manager Omar Khan said, “all options are on the table.”
The Vikings still are considering placing a franchise tag on Sam Darnold, who is the only free agent quarterback expected to command in the neighborhood of $40 million per year on his new deal, league sources believe. But, with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy ready to participate in the offseason program after missing all last season due to injury, Darnold could become expendable.
“Sam is in a position where the NFL thinks he can play quarterback at a high level,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said. “That’s a really good thing.”
The Vikings let franchise stalwart Kirk Cousins walk away last season and replaced him with an unproven Darnold and rookie McCarthy, so general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah isn’t afraid to be bold.
Perhaps as bold as moving forward with a depth chart of McCarthy and former Giants starter Daniel Jones, who also is a free agent after finishing last season with the Vikings.
“When we did the [Darnold] move originally, we wanted to create optionality,” Adofo-Mensah said. “And part of the optionality was believing and betting on a guy who was young, talented — believing in our infrastructure to be able to do the things we can do with the quarterbacks. So, we’re now in a position where we have options.”
The Seahawks and Falcons are unlikely to add starters to the quarterback market.
Seahawks general manager Jon Schneider recommitted to Geno Smith, who is in the final year of his contract.
Smith is due to count $44.5 million against the salary cap, and the Seahawks could save $31 million by cutting him.
“We expect him to be our guy,” Schneider said, “but we want to do what’s right, too.’’
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said he is “comfortable” keeping Cousins as the NFL’s highest-paid backup quarterback ($40 million cap hit). Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million contract last offseason, but lost the job to rookie Michael Penix Jr. after a 7-7 start. Perhaps the Falcons are just trying to force an interested team to trade for Cousins instead of waiting for his potential free agency.
Because of contractual guarantees, Cousins can play for the league minimum and stick the Falcons with the majority of the bill if he is released. The Steelers benefited from the Broncos paying Wilson under similar circumstances last season.
An old Vikings reunion between Cousins and Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski makes a lot of cost-effective sense with Deshaun Watson likely sidelined for the season.
“We understand that it’s not ideal to have a [backup] quarterback at that cap number,” Fontenot said. “When we say we’re comfortable, we’re talking about the total funds allocated to the quarterback position. As a backup, [Cousins] handled himself well at the end of the season.”
The Jets are done with Aaron Rodgers but are not expected to release him until March 12 so that his dead-cap charge can be spread over the 2025 and 2026 seasons. It puts the Jets in the market to find competition for Tyrod Taylor, and Rodgers on the hunt for a new team unless he retires.
Matthew Stafford is the hottest name in trade circles, but cooler heads could prevail in his contract dispute with the Rams if both sides realize they are better off together.
Other than the Steelers, the four most obvious teams with quarterback needs are the Titans, Browns, Giants and Raiders, and they must decide how to weigh free agency against their expectations for the draft.
Only Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are expected to be first-round picks — and all four of those teams hold top six picks.
“The quarterback position is going to be highly contested,” said Raiders head coach Pete Carroll, who is beginning his search just as the starter he won a Super Bowl with in Seattle (Wilson) hits the market. “If you look back at when we started in Seattle and how we built the competition to find the proper guy that would take over that job, that was a very intricate, elaborate process.”
Quarterback free agency will be more like a whirlwind.
