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Long gone are the days of Allan Houston’s series-clinching buzzer-beater or Jeff Van Gundy hanging on Alonzo Mourning’s leg.
The Knicks’ rivalry with the Heat is a thing of the past.
It has been more than two decades since they played in the same division, and they have met only twice in the playoffs this century.
That fizzled backdrop applies to my handicap for Monday’s matchup at Madison Square Garden.
The Knicks are back home after a five-game road trip, including the intense finale against the Warriors — a 97-94 Knicks loss — that involved some podcast tension involving Draymond Green.
In his typical reckless fashion, Green falsely accused Karl-Anthony Towns of missing the previous meeting with Golden State because of a fear of Jimmy Butler.
In actuality, Towns attended a funeral, yet Green didn’t even apologize upon hearing actual facts.
All this contributes to my anticipation of a sluggish vibe for the Knicks on Monday. The situation already sets up that way.
Knicks vs. Heat odds
TeamSpreadOddsTotalKnicks+7.5 (-110)+240o209.5 (-115)Heat-7.5 (-110)-300u209.5 (-105)Odds via BetMGM
Knicks vs. Heat betting previews
According to KillerSports.com, since 1995, teams returning home from a road trip of at least four games are 1,196-1,259-48 against the spread (ATS), which is 48.7 percent.
Normally, I’d fade the Knicks and be done with it.
However, Miami is pretty unreliable these days, losing seven straight games to sit nine games under .500 at 29-38, which is baffling for an Erik Spoelstra team.
Plus, the Heat are just 2-5 ATS during this skid, losing by 34 points to Memphis on Saturday.
Given the Knicks’ explosive offense, even if my anticipated sluggish start proves accurate, I worry about a barrage of points once the Knicks finally wake up.
Thus, I am going to try to isolate the Knicks’ expected apathy by betting the Heat +4 in the first half.
Additionally, Miami is a much stronger team in the first half than second half. Specifically, the Heat rank fourth worst in fourth-quarter point differential. And they actually rank 10th in the first half, on par with playoff-bound teams like the Pistons, Timberwolves and Nuggets.
And I would argue that recent form matters more.
Betting on the NBA?
During this seven-game skid, Miami has been outscored by a combined 11 points in the first half. However, the Heat have been outscored in all seven fourth quarters by a combined 51 points.
I have a 33-18 ATS record in this Post sports section and am officially playing Miami +4 in the first half.
I think that’s the best way to generate the most line value, which is a betting strategy to align one’s analysis with specific odds that present the best return on your money.
BEST BET: Heat +4 first half (-110, DraftKings)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
