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Post sports gambling editor/producer and digital sports editor Matt Ehalt is in his first season in the NFL Bettor’s Guide.
All spreads and odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
Washington Commanders (+9.5) over DETROIT LIONS
This line scares us since it feels higher than it should be, but we’re comfortable backing Jayden Daniels to keep this game competitive and within 10 points.
Yes, this is a tough spot for Washington, especially with Detroit having had a bye week.
The large spread affords us the backdoor cover, and Washington’s recent play inspires confidence they can compete.
Since losing by 17 in Week 1 to a Buccaneers team it beat in the wild-card round, Washington has not lost by more than eight points. Granted, none of those teams were the Lions.
Detroit has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks, allowing more than 60 yards to Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson, and Washington has shown a willingness to let Daniels run plenty.
Washington’s defense has played better in recent weeks, which will be critical in preventing Detroit from scoring at will inside in a dome.
Houston Texans (+8.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs beat the Texans, 27-19, at home in Week 16.
That game had a small spread of just 3.5, but the Chiefs are now laying more than a touchdown. A repeat of that game would mean Houston covers here.
Though we faded Houston (wrongly) last week, betting against the Chiefs has been profitable this year.
The Texans will need to find a way to isolate Nico Collins more after he had little effect on the previous matchup (seven catches, 60 yards), and Joe Mixon will have to be more productive than his 14 carries for 57 yards.
Betting on the NFL?
If C.J. Stroud avoids bad interceptions — he threw two in the December matchup — the Texans can hang.
The beauty of this spread is we again are afforded the opportunity for a backdoor cover.
Houston’s defense looked invigorated against the Chargers, intercepting Justin Herbert four times, and will have to be just as opportunistic in this matchup.
LAST WEEK: 0-2. Chargers (L); Vikings (L)
SEASON: 14-23-1.
