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The New York Mets open up a three-game set with the Miami Marlins on Monday evening. 

The Fish are one of the biggest long shots on the betting board in 2025, sitting at 300/1 to win the World Series and 100/1 to top the National League East. 

Miami checked into the season with the second-lowest win total (63.5) in the National League.

David Peterson is set to toe the rubber for the Mets. Cal Quantrill will get the ball for the Marlins.

The Mets are a -190 favorite at the time of writing. 

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Mets vs. Marlins betting preview 

It’s tough to draw many conclusions from the opening series of an MLB season, but we can feel pretty confident about projecting this matchup.

The Marlins are one of the worst teams in the big leagues, while the Mets are considered a contender in the top-heavy National League. 

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

Peterson is expected to play a major role for the Mets this season after quietly putting up terrific numbers in 121 innings in 2024. 

Perhaps the most impressive part of Peterson’s stat line was his 0.6 home runs per 9 innings. 

Peterson is the A-side of this pitching matchup, with Quantrill looking like he’s just in Miami to make up the numbers after back-to-back poor seasons with the Cleveland Guardians and Colorado Rockies, respectively.

Quantrill pitched to a 5.08 ERA, 5.10 FIP, and gave up 1.23 home runs per 9 innings in his last two campaigns.

Mets vs. Marlins pick

This is a mismatch. The Mets are likely to finish 30 games in front of the Marlins in the NL East this season, and the pitching matchup is one-sided. 

That said, it’s a dangerous game laying this kind of juice in the third game of the MLB season.

Instead, we’ll isolate Quantrill and back the Mets to go Over 4.5 runs in the First 5 innings.

The Pick: Mets Over 4.5 Runs in the First 5 innings (-105, Bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

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