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Where have you gone, Gary Williams?
Tennessee (-4.5) over Kentucky
Why are the Wildcats getting points after winning both regular-season matchups by a combined 16 points? Because Kentucky won’t shoot 50 percent from 3 — as it did in both wins — against the nation’s third-ranked perimeter defense. There is also little chance that the Vols shoot as poorly again, having hit 14-of-63 3-pointers in the losses.
Tennessee, which held UCLA to 58 points in a one-sided second-round win, has silenced the nation’s best offenses in recent weeks, holding No. 1 Auburn 19 points below its season average, and No. 2 Alabama 14 points below its season average. Rick Barnes can also rely on Chaz Lanier, who averaged 24.5 points in the first two games of the tournament, while shooting 55 percent from deep. Kentucky’s shooting from the line in the NCAA Tournament (22 of 36) could foreshadow their demise.
Ole Miss (+3.5) over Michigan State
Chris Beard has stunned Tom Izzo before, leading Texas Tech to the 2019 national championship game after knocking off the Spartans in the Final Four. Michigan State owns a decisive edge on the glass, but the Rebels have repeatedly overcome their greatest weakness, defeating five teams in the Sweet 16 (Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, BYU, Arkansas).
Ole Miss ranks among the top 25 on both ends of the floor, while leaning on veteran guards who help the team commit fewer turnovers than all but two teams in the nation. Beard is at his best with time to prepare, going 8-0 on an NCAA Tournament week’s first set of games. Michigan State’s performances against Bryant and New Mexico inspire little confidence in another deep Izzo run.
Michigan (+9.5) over Auburn
The Tigers’ lone cover since March 1 came in the second-round win against Creighton after being tied with 14 minutes to play. Michigan can cause similar problems with its pair of seven-footers (Danny Wolf, Vladislav Goldin), who held strong against Texas A&M’s top-ranked rebounders and top 10 defense, combining for 37 points and 21 rebounds in the second-round win.
Michigan’s Tre Donaldson should be familiar with what’s coming, having spent the previous two years with Bruce Pearl at Auburn. Elite defense has led Michigan to five straight wins — four against teams seeded fourth or higher — and will cause problems for a Tigers attack that hasn’t been in sync in weeks.
Betting on College Basketball?
Houston (-8.5) over Purdue
All-American Braden Smith was named one of the four finalists for the Naismith Trophy. It will be hard to believe watching Houston’s top-ranked defense smother the 6-foot point guard, who committed eight turnovers in the second round against McNeese, and averaged nearly six turnovers per game in losses to other top-tier defenses (Michigan State, Auburn, Texas A&M).
Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace, giving the advantage to the tougher and more disciplined squad, which has lost only one game since November. Without Zach Edey, the Boilermakers allow too many easy looks in the paint, and the defense will be spread as thin as ever, facing the top 3-point shooting team in the nation. Before Purdue defeated a pair of double-digit seeds, it had lost six of its previous nine games, with its five most recent defeats coming by an average of 12 points.
This season: 21-24 2011-24 record: 378-340-12
