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With no easing of geopolitical tensions in sight, the EU and its members need to fight for themselves by prioritising strategic partnerships with resource-rich countries in Central Asia and beyond, Nicolas Tenzer writes.
ADVERTISEMENTOn 8 January, Northvolt’s owners decided to keep the company operational while seeking financial rescue, the Swedish electric vehicle battery manufacturer announced as it works to secure additional investors and funding in the coming weeks. Declaring bankruptcy in November last year, Northvolt, once heralded as Europe’s battery champion, has starkly exposed the fragility of the European electric vehicle (EV) industry. This vulnerability, particularly evident in Germany as subsidies wane, reflects deeper challenges. High costs continue to make electric vehicles unaffordable for many consumers, while carmakers across the continent are closing plants and cutting jobs. By contrast, China’s two-decade-long strategic investment in its EV industry is bearing remarkable fruit. More than half of all new cars sold in China are now plug-in vehicles or hybrids, a testament to the country’s industrial dominance and strategic foresight. China is securing its supply chains for critical minerals at an unprecedented pace, and already produces 60% of rare earths and metals and processes 90% of them. This dominance grants Beijing immense influence over global supply chains, which Europe must counteract to remain competitive. It needs to take a massive leap in the adoption of electric vehicles, which means equipping itself with the necessary industrial capacities. To do so, it must also secure its access to raw materials or be unable to compete on the global market – all the more so as China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy poses major supply risks which, if realized, would represent a systemic danger for significant sections of European industry. This is where the “de-risking” strategy expressed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen comes into its whole meaning. At the very least, diversifying and securing the origins of rare earths is a categorical imperative in terms of safety, technology and industry. Yet, Europe remains alarmingly behind, lagging two decades behind China.Facing a make-or-break challengeEurope faces a protracted, two-fold challenge. For starters, without essential rare earth resources and without control over the entire chain from extraction to processing, Europe is unlikely to achieve its ambitious transition to a green economy. There is also the question of economic competition, both in terms of how green economies make or break the future and how Brussels deals with significant geostrategic implications. With growing trade tensions, both between the United States and China and, more broadly, between these two countries and Europe, the EU would be well advised to join the race for Central Asia, a major source of many indispensable rare earth resources. Building strong partnerships with resource-rich nations such as Mongolia, whose economy is highly dependent on minerals, must be a priority in the face of Chinese (and Russian) efforts to secure access to important minerals.However, Europe should not be cowed into a premature retreat because of Chinese and Russian overtures to Central Asia. On the contrary, Europe has several advantages compared to China, which make for a much more reliable, stable relationship based on mutual respect: it offers the stability of trade relations, reliability of contracts and price guarantees, all without encroaching on political independence or national sovereignty. Granting the EU access to their minerals would therefore represent a means to diversify trade relations, a geostrategic dimension of particular importance to Mongolia. Mongolia as a strategic opportunityMongolia is ultra-dependent on China, to which it supplies 93% of its exports. It is also ultra-dependent on Russia, this landlocked country’s other route to the outside world. ADVERTISEMENTIts hosting of Vladimir Putin in early September 2024 sparked outrage, as it failed to respect the commitment of any country party to the Rome Statute to arrest a person subject to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. The fact that Mongolia flaunted its responsibilities highlighted the sway Moscow has over Ulaanbaatar in critical issues and demonstrated the clear political interest that Western democracies have in making it more independent of the revisionist states of Russia and China at a time when the international system is fracturing at an accelerating pace, and not necessarily in the EU’s favour.The EU must therefore actively position itself as a dependable partner for countries looking to reduce their reliance on Russia and China. Besides Mongolia, Kazakhstan is a case in point, which is why French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan last year signals a step in the right direction, but further efforts are needed to solidify these relationships. ADVERTISEMENTTurkey is also considering these countries with interest, while European countries find themselves a direct competitor of the US, which clearly understands the value of this country’s considerable resources. In this field, for its own long-term security, Europe urgently needs to demonstrate that strategic autonomy is not an empty notion.Geo-strategic realpolitikOf course, what happens to Ukraine will be decisive in this respect, given that the country holds over €11 trillion worth of rare earths and, in particular, a third of Europe’s lithium resources, i.e. 10% of the world’s resources. Moreover, if Russia were to emerge undefeated from the war it has launched, key Central Asian countries such as Mongolia would run the risk of remaining permanently attached to Moscow, which in the medium term would also play into the hands of Beijing, which, incomparably more than the former, has the means of its own power and see its reach bolstered. ADVERTISEMENTAn agreement that did not allow Ukraine to regain its entire territory and did not announce punishment for Russian crimes would be seen as a sign of weakness by these Central Asian countries, which would turn away from Europe. Europe, like them, would lose out in terms of security.The writing is on the wall, Europe must act decisively. With no easing of geopolitical tensions in sight, along with an arguably less friendly US administration incoming, the EU and its members need to fight for themselves by prioritising strategic partnerships with resource-rich countries in Central Asia and beyond. If Europe truly aspires to be a strong autonomous global force capable of leading the green transition, it must demonstrate that ambition through bold, coordinated action.Nicolas Tenzer is a guest professor at Sciences-Po Paris, author of three official reports to the French government and 23 books, the latest of which, “Notre Guerre: le crime et l’oubli. Pour une pensée stratégique” was awarded the Nathalie Pasternak Prize.ADVERTISEMENT
