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Five years after the United Kingdom exited the European Union, polls suggest public opinion has reversed on the issue, with a majority of people now believing it was a mistake.
ADVERTISEMENTFive years ago on Friday, two separate crowds gathered near the UK Parliament: one group cheered and carried Union Jack flags, while the other was more sombre and bore European Union banners.On 31 January 2020 at 11 pm London time – midnight in Brussels, the EU headquarters – the UK officially left the bloc after almost five decades of membership that had brought free movement and free trade between Britain and 27 other European countries.For supporters of Brexit, the UK became a sovereign nation in charge of its own destiny. For opponents, it turned into an isolated and diminished country.Five years on, people and businesses are still grappling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks of the “The impact has been really quite profound,” said political scientist Anand Menon, who heads the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe. “It’s changed our economy.”An island nation with a robust sense of its historical importance, Britain had long been an uneasy member of the EU when it held a referendum in June 2016 on whether to remain or leave. Decades of deindustrialisation, followed by years of public spending cuts and high immigration, made fertile ground for the argument that Brexit would let the UK “take back control” of its borders, laws and economy.Yet the result – 52% in favour of leaving and 48% in favour of staying – came as a shock to many. Neither the Conservative government, which campaigned to stay in the EU, nor pro-Brexit campaigners had planned for the messy details of the split.The referendum was followed by years of wrangling over the terms of separation between a wounded EU and a fractious UK that caused gridlock in Parliament and ultimately defeated Prime Minister Theresa May. She resigned in 2019 and was replaced by Boris Johnson, who vowed to “get Brexit done.”However, this meant the UK left without agreement on its future economic relationship with the EU, which accounted for half the country’s trade. That political departure was followed by 11 months of testy negotiations on divorce terms, culminating in an agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020.The bare-bones trade deal saw the UK leave the bloc’s single market and customs union. It meant goods could move without tariffs or quotas and brought new red tape, costs and delays for trading businesses.ADVERTISEMENT”It has cost us money. We are definitely slower and it’s more expensive. But we’ve survived,” said Lars Andersen, whose London-based company, My Nametags, ships brightly colored labels for kids’ clothes and school supplies to more than 150 countries.To keep trading with the EU, Andersen has had to set up a base in Ireland, through which all orders destined for EU countries must pass before being sent on. He says the hassle has been worth it, but some other small businesses he knows have stopped trading with the EU or moved manufacturing out of the UK.The government’s Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that UK exports and imports will both be around 15% lower in the long term than if the UK had remained in the EU, and economic productivity 4% lower than it otherwise would have been.ADVERTISEMENTIn some ways, Brexit has not played out as either supporters or opponents expected. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought more economic disruption, and made it harder to discern the impact of Britain’s EU exit on the economy.In one key area, immigration, Brexit’s impact has been the opposite of what many predicted. A desire to reduce immigration was a major reason many people voted to leave the EU, yet immigration to the UK today is far higher than before Brexit because the number of visas granted for workers from around the world has soared.ADVERTISEMENTMeanwhile, the rise of protectionist political leaders, especially newly returned US President Donald Trump, has raised the stakes for Britain, now caught between its near neighbours in Europe and its trans-Atlantic “special relationship” with the US.”The world is a far less forgiving place now than it was in 2016 when we voted to leave,” Menon said.Polls suggest UK public opinion has soured on Brexit, with a majority of people now thinking it was a mistake. Nevertheless, rejoining the EU seems a distant prospect. ADVERTISEMENTWith memories of arguments and division still raw, few people want to go through the whole process again.Labour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer, elected last July, has promised to “reset” relations with the EU but has ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market. He is aiming for relatively modest changes, such as making it easier for artists to tour and for professionals to have their qualifications recognised, as well as closer cooperation on law enforcement and security.EU leaders have welcomed Starmer’s change in tone compared to his predecessors. However, as the bloc faces significant problems of its own amid growing populism across the continent, the UK is seemingly no longer a top priority for the EU.ADVERTISEMENT
