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As the three countries prepare to spend billions beefing up their defence capabilities, they will continue to rely on the US for nuclear deterrence, experts tell Euronews.
ADVERTISEMENTWorried by global instability, countries from Europe to Asia are drastically increasing their military spending in an attempt to become more self-reliant. At a time when US involvement overseas appears to be waning under President Donald Trump, some countries worry that Washington’s “America First” approach could embolden the actions of nations like Russia and China elsewhere in the world. Given such uncertainty, Germany, Italy and Japan are among those trying to bolster their defence capabilities. However, these three countries, who formed the Axis alliance in World War II, are hindered by their pasts, said Raffaele Marchetti, professor of international relations at LUISS University of Rome.“The goal of the post-war peace treaties was to get rid of hegemonism, militarism and aggressive adventurism in the culture of these three countries.” “Germany, Italy and Japan have become so-called civilian powers. Nowadays, it is really difficult for these countries to adopt a combat-ready mentality,” he added. Experts told Euronews that these G7 countries, which are all non-nuclear states, will continue to depend on the US for nuclear deterrence against their adversaries. Germany’s plan to strengthen its armyLast week, Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD) agreed to set aside a constitutional debt brake, allowing the country to unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defence and infrastructure projects. This came as German defence spending hit 2% of the country’s GDP, three years after outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to boost the army through 100 billion euros of investment. The gaps in the country’s defence capabilities are significant, according to a recent German parliamentary report. It suggested that the Bundeswehr — the German army — would need to recruit tens of thousands of military personnel by 2031.Germany also needs to modernise its weaponry, as much of its equipment has deteriorated since the end of the Cold War. The parliament’s budget committee has doubled its planned purchases of cutting-edge air defence systems and battle tanks. ‘Culture built on anti-militarism’Despite its plans to grow its army, Germany is still bound, at least rhetorically, by decades of anti-militarism, according to Jaques-Pierre Gougeon, the director of the German Observatory at the Paris-based IFRI think tank. Following the end of World War II, Germany, which was divided into East and West, had to comply with strict military limitations. When Friedrich Merz, the centre-right politician who is expected to succeed Scholz as chancellor, recently announced his massive military investment plan, he spoke about “teilnahme” (participation) with his country’s allies. ADVERTISEMENT“It is a deliberately chosen wording to cope with a culture built on the anti-militarism of the Germans”, said Gougeon, who saw Merz’s speech as aimed more at an internal than foreign audience. “The Bundeswehr (German army) can grow only in a strict European political context. Its rearmament is more about a common EU financial effort,” he added. French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken about the possibility of extending his country’s nuclear deterrence to Germany and other EU partners, who would help financially with its enlargement.However, some Europeans believe the current approach is better, despite the Trump administration’s threat to reduce the role it plays in European security.ADVERTISEMENT“One nuclear umbrella is better than two, because then there’s no ambiguity about which nuclear umbrella is protecting you,” said Tobias Cremer, a German Social Democrat who is part of the European Parliament’s recently created Security and Defence Committee. “We have a plan A, this plan has worked for 80 years, and it is both in our interest and in the American interest that this plan A, which is the NATO nuclear deterrent, remains in place,” he said. According to Cremer, “the EU is not to replace the European pillar of NATO, but the two need to work very, very closely together”.Italy and a shared concernItaly shares the same concerns as Germany about the US decreasing its military role in Europe.ADVERTISEMENTThere are currently around 120 US and NATO installations in Italy. Rome’s defence spending sits below Germany’s as a percentage of its economy. Currently, Italy puts 1.59% of its GDP towards its military, well below the level Trump wishes NATO members to spend. As part of its planned improvements, the Italian weapons producer Leonardo has struck a deal with its German counterpart Rheinmetall to produce a common heavy tank.Italy, Japan and the UK are also planning the production of a sixth generation war plane. The joint venture will be run between the UK’s BAE system, Italy’s Leonardo and Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co. ADVERTISEMENTAs for nuclear deterrence, Italy, like Germany, must rely on US nuclear protection, said Marchetti, of the LUISS University of Rome. “(For the Italians), having more European strategic autonomy doesn’t mean getting rid of the US nuclear shelter,” he explained. Japan and its fractious neighbourhoodJapan’s government has recently said it will increase military spending from 1.6% to 2% of GDP by 2027. One area that Tokyo, which has China, Russia and North Korea as neighbours, plans to improve on is its air defence systems. ADVERTISEMENTUS military presence in Japan remains crucial, with more than 50,000 American troops based there, including on the island of Okinawa. The American nuclear deterrence is the backbone of Japan’s security system, as its population is strongly anti-nuclear due to the past traumas of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.Japan does not benefit from collective defence like in Europe, as the Indo-Pacific region is more fragile politically and militarily, despite intense economic interdependence, according to Silvia Menegazzi, the founder of the Study Centre on Contemporary China. “For its security, Japan badly needs US protection and this is why NATO has been increasing its partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region,” she said. ADVERTISEMENT
