Recent migration patterns in Pennsylvania could have a significant impact on the potential outcome of the 2024 presidential election in the critical battleground state. Data analysis of new census figures suggests that the state may see an even closer contest between President Biden and former President Trump than in 2020, when Biden won by a narrow margin. The state’s high percentage of manufacturing workers makes it a key target for both campaigns, and demographic shifts due to migration could influence the election results.
In the 2020 election, Biden defeated Trump by less than 100,000 votes, winning Pennsylvania with 50% of the vote to Trump’s 48.8%. Looking ahead to 2024, the state is expected to once again play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the presidential race. Census data released since 2020 has revealed that counties won by Trump experienced a net gain in population, while Biden-won counties saw a combined loss of over 45,000 people. Overall, Pennsylvania has seen a decline in population since 2020, with Philadelphia and Allegheny County experiencing some of the largest losses.
The impact of migration patterns on the upcoming election is uncertain, but there is potential for it to influence the outcome, particularly in closely contested races. Both Biden and Trump are actively courting manufacturing workers and seeking to secure their support in the upcoming election. Trump’s team has highlighted Biden’s low job approval rating in Pennsylvania, suggesting that voters in the state are increasingly disillusioned with the current administration’s policies. Yost emphasized the challenges that Biden may face in retaining support in key Democratic-leaning areas due to shifting population trends.
Migration patterns out of urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh could have political consequences as residents relocate to surrounding suburbs or more rural areas. The question of whether individuals will maintain their voting habits as they move to new areas remains uncertain. Yost indicated that Biden’s low approval rating could pose a significant obstacle to his re-election, and the population changes in Pennsylvania since 2020 may make his challenge even more difficult. New polling data shows a virtual tie between Biden and Trump in the state, indicating that the election is likely to be closely contested.
Biden’s approval ratings have dropped to near-record lows in recent polling, with only 36% of respondents approving of his job performance. Meanwhile, Trump and Biden are virtually tied in Pennsylvania, with 49% supporting Trump and 47% supporting Biden, within the margin of error. As the 2024 election approaches, the impact of migration patterns, demographic shifts, and changing voter sentiments will continue to shape the political landscape in Pennsylvania. Both campaigns will need to adapt their strategies to appeal to key constituencies and secure the state’s crucial electoral votes.
