The results of the United States presidential election have sparked mixed reactions in Africa, particularly in Uganda where there is hope for improved relations with the US under Donald Trump’s administration. However, analysts warn that the lifting of sanctions could also mean a reduction in US aid to African countries. Trump’s foreign policy is expected to prioritize transactional relationships and shift away from multilateral partnerships, putting aid, trade, and climate agreements at risk.
Leaders in Africa who have faced allegations of human rights violations, such as Yoweri Museveni of Uganda and Paul Kagame of Rwanda, may try to curry favor with Trump to avoid further scrutiny. Trump’s focus on strategic interests over human rights and democracy may strain relationships with democracies in Africa, such as South Africa, which could face challenges due to its ties with Russia and China. Economic ties, such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), may be jeopardized as Trump seeks to negotiate more advantageous bilateral deals.
The future of US aid to Africa, currently about $8 billion annually, is uncertain under Trump’s second term. Programs such as PEPFAR, which provides aid for HIV/AIDS relief, could face cuts as Trump reorients US foreign aid towards his strategic priorities. Trump’s climate skepticism poses a major concern for Africa, as his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement could limit access to international climate funds and exacerbate climate vulnerabilities on the continent.
Trump’s victory could also have geopolitical implications for Africa, particularly in relation to China and multilateral institutions. Trump’s rivalry with China may pressure African nations to distance themselves from Beijing, creating difficult choices for countries reliant on Chinese infrastructure funding and trade. However, experts suggest that Trump’s detachment from Africa could encourage the continent to seek alternative partnerships and foster stronger intracontinental trade relationships.
Overall, Trump’s reelection raises concerns about the future of US-Africa relations, with potential implications for aid, trade, and climate agreements. While some leaders may try to align themselves with Trump to avoid scrutiny, others may face challenges due to their ties with China or human rights violations. Ultimately, Africa may need to consider alternative partnerships and alliances as it navigates the changing dynamics of US foreign policy under Trump’s administration.
