A recent study has found that natural climate patterns, such as El Niño, are causing tropical glaciers to lose their ice at an alarming rate. El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years, leads to warmer ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, impacting weather globally. The Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Peruvian Andes has been shown to be sensitive to these climate shifts, with El Niño contributing to its continued shrinkage. By using images captured by NASA Landsat satellites over the past four decades, researchers confirmed that regional warming from El Niño has resulted in a drastic reduction of snow-covered area on the ice cap. The study, led by Kara Lamantia of The Ohio State University, found that between 1985 and 2022, the QIC lost 58% of its snow cover and 37% of its total area.
The study utilized an algorithm developed by the research team to automate the process of snow-covered area detection on the QIC. This method is more efficient than traditional field measurements or manual tracing of satellite images, providing a consistent and reliable measurement. By measuring the ratio of snow-covered area to the total area, researchers can determine if the ice cap is gaining mass, experiencing ice loss, or maintaining a steady state. During El Niños, the ratio significantly decreases, indicating a substantial reduction in the snow-covered area. This reduction is attributed to the drier conditions experienced in southern Peru during El Niño, leading to less snowfall to replenish the melting snow cover. As climate change intensifies, El Niños are expected to become longer and stronger, accelerating ice loss and potentially preventing snow cover recovery during La Niñas.
The ongoing decline in the QIC’s snow cover due to anthropogenic warming may lead to its disappearance by 2080, transforming it into a wasting ice field similar to Kilimanjaro. The study notes that by the end of the century, the ice cap may vanish entirely. The loss of glaciers and ice caps poses a threat to high-mountain communities that rely on them for water supply. Mitigating the impact of climate change on these regions requires careful monitoring and conservation efforts based on data collected about complex climate interactions. The study emphasizes the importance of addressing the potential complications likely to arise from increased intensity and duration of El Niños on the QIC, urging proactive measures to manage and protect water resources.
The study was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and the Volo Foundation. Co-authors of the research included Lonnie Thompson, Bryan Mark from Ohio State, and Laura J. Larocca from Arizona State University. As the Earth’s climate continues to evolve, understanding and predicting the impacts of short-term weather events on glacier vulnerability will be crucial for future research. Efforts to safeguard water resources and address climate change implications are essential to protect high-mountain communities and natural ecosystems. By utilizing scientific data and collaboration among researchers, there is hope for developing effective strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and preserve Earth’s fragile ecosystems.