In a recent turn of events, Elon Musk has been seeking support from the Trump administration for SpaceX’s space launch licenses, as well as addressing tussles with the EPA over the environmental impacts of Starship launches. With Trump promising to make life good for smart people like Musk during his re-election campaign, there is speculation that SpaceX may receive preferential treatment from the administration. This has caused concern among competitors in the space industry who fear SpaceX will gain an unfair advantage.
During his first term, Trump made significant strides in advancing space exploration efforts, including establishing the Space Force, increasing NASA’s funding, and launching the Artemis program for a return to the moon. Should he win another term, industry experts believe Trump’s focus on competing with China will boost spending on military and civil space programs, potentially shifting priorities towards Musk’s goal of reaching Mars. However, Congress may push back on such ambitions, favoring a sustained human presence on the moon before moving onto Mars.
One of the ways Trump could support SpaceX’s efforts is by cutting costs at NASA, potentially eliminating the costly Space Launch System in favor of using Starship for moon missions. Despite SpaceX’s involvement in the Artemis program with a lunar lander version of Starship, any decisions to replace SLS would require approval from Congress due to the program’s widespread job support. Additionally, Trump’s interest in privatization in space could create new opportunities for U.S. space companies, though concerns about reliability and unpredictability remain.
With a potential transition to a GOP majority on the Federal Communications Commission, SpaceX stands to benefit from approvals on spectrum usage and satellite constellation expansion for its Starlink communications satellites. Trump’s plans for expanding the Space Force and establishing a Space National Guard may face pushback due to budget constraints and opposition from the Pentagon, creating uncertainty around funding for military space programs. Overall, the administration is likely to continue towards privatization in space as a means to counter China.
The industry is also bracing for potential impacts on commercial satellite Earth observation providers following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Analysts believe the U.S. government’s hesitancy to rely on commercial services for critical functions may hinder the profitability of these companies. Concerns over the reliability of U.S. space access with Trump back in power, as well as Musk’s own unpredictable behavior, may prompt other countries to accelerate their own efforts to develop independent launch and satellite capabilities. This uncertainty underscores the need for a more comprehensive and stable approach to space policy moving forward.
