Top Ukrainian military officials have warned of a significant buildup of Russian troops near northeastern Ukraine, prompting concerns of a potential offensive push that could further strain Ukrainian forces. General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander in chief, has reported that Russia is redeploying troops near Vovchansk and Lyptsi, villages near Kharkiv that Russian forces have been attempting to capture for more than two weeks. Additionally, massing of troops across from Sumy raises the possibility of a ground offensive in that region. Ukraine is taking steps to reorganize its defenses to prepare for potential assaults.
The incursion by Russian forces toward Kharkiv has introduced a new threat to Ukraine’s military, which already faces constant attacks in the Donbas region. Ukrainian commanders have had to move troops to the north to reinforce defenses, while awaiting the arrival of Western weapons in sufficient numbers to make an impact. The concentration of Russian forces near Sumy expands the territory that Ukraine must defend, putting additional pressure on its already stretched forces. An offensive in the Kharkiv or Sumy regions could potentially overwhelm Ukrainian troops and provide an opening for Russia to advance.
In response to Russian advances in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine managed to halt the progress by retreating to more fortified positions. However, this has required the shifting of reserves and elite units to the northeast, weakening defenses elsewhere along the front, particularly in the Donetsk region where Russian forces are making slow advances through sieges. Russia’s main goal appears to be to expand the active front, disrupt Ukrainian defenses, and prevent the use of reserves by Ukrainian commanders. By diverting troops to the north, Russia aims to enhance its chances of capturing Donetsk, a region it annexed in 2022 but does not fully control.
Ukraine’s defense minister has reported that Russia is massing thousands of troops near the Sumy region, anticipating a new offensive. While this force may not be sufficient to capture major towns or cities, it could tie up Ukrainian units in the area. Russian reconnaissance missions have been noted along the border, indicating likely attempts to carry out actions similar to those seen in the Kharkiv region. Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration at being unable to prevent troop build-ups in Russian territory due to restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Recent calls to lift this ban have gained some traction, as several countries and NATO officials have expressed support for Ukraine’s ability to strike military targets in Russia with Western weapons.
As Russian attacks continue along the front line, Ukraine is facing pressure on multiple fronts. Russian forces have made minor gains in the Donetsk region, reaching the outskirts of strategic locations like Chasiv Yar. Capturing Chasiv Yar would give Russia control of key heights in the area, potentially exposing Ukrainian logistical hubs to increased artillery fire. General Syrsky has emphasized the need for antiaircraft weapons to counter Russian airstrikes, which are supported by powerful guided bombs. Sweden has announced a significant military aid package for Ukraine, including air defense missiles and surveillance aircraft to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to identify targets and track enemy aircraft.
