Donald Trump arrived in the South Bronx for a rally on Thursday night, aiming to succeed where other former presidents have failed, according to the New York Young Republican Club’s president, Gavin Wax. Wax pitched the idea for Trump to hold a rally in the traditionally Democratic borough at the club’s gala last year, suggesting that previous presidents like Reagan and Carter had failed to win there. Trump, who is currently facing legal challenges in his hometown, embraced the idea of campaigning in the Bronx as a way to set the stage for an electoral landslide.
While Wax believes that the Bronx has been bad luck for former presidents, the reality is more nuanced. Carter, elected in 1976, campaigned in the borough in 1977 but ultimately lost to Reagan in the 1980 election, despite winning the Bronx by a significant margin. Reagan, the last Republican candidate to campaign in the Bronx, was unsuccessful in winning the borough in both 1980 and 1984, despite winning the state overall. Democrats, including congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have suggested that Trump’s rally in the Bronx is driven by his precarious financial situation and mounting legal fees rather than genuine political strategy.
Recent polling data shows that President Joe Biden’s lead over Trump in New York is declining. A May 13-15 poll by Siena College found that Biden leads Trump by 9 points, compared to his 23-point victory in the state in 2020. Wax sees this narrowing margin as a potential sign of a Trump victory in the 2024 election, as Trump continues to make the race competitive. While Wax acknowledges that a Trump win is not a likely outcome, the tightening of the polls suggests that Trump could potentially make a strong showing in the November 2024 election.
The rally in the South Bronx represents a strategic move by Trump to campaign in a traditionally Democratic stronghold and potentially shift the political landscape in his favor. By holding a rally in the Bronx, Trump is aiming to appeal to voters in an area that has historically supported Democratic candidates. Despite facing legal challenges and financial hardships, Trump sees an opportunity to make a strong showing in his hometown and potentially secure a significant victory in the upcoming election. The rally in the Bronx represents a calculated political move by Trump to energize his base and position himself as a viable candidate for the 2024 election.
