The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a dire warning about the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, predicting between 17 to 25 named tropical cyclones, the most ever forecasted in May. Many other experts have also predicted a high likelihood of 14 or more named storms this season, with some projections exceeding 20 storms. NOAA forecasts that eight to 13 of these storms could become hurricanes, with four to seven potentially reaching major hurricane status. There is an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The current conditions in the Atlantic Ocean are contributing to the aggressive hurricane outlooks for this year, with record warm water temperatures and the potential formation of a La Niña weather pattern. Forecasters are facing unprecedented circumstances as they try to predict the season ahead, with no previous examples involving such conditions. The warm ocean temperatures are a cause for concern as they provide additional fuel to any storm that forms and can help sustain and intensify them. Combined with the rapidly subsiding El Niño weather pattern, experts are increasingly confident in their forecasts of a significantly high number of storms this hurricane season.
The critical area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form is already abnormally warm ahead of the season’s official start on June 1. The warm ocean temperatures in the region from West Africa to Central America are higher than last year, which saw 20 named storms. Even if the surface temperature suddenly cools, the warmer temperatures below the surface are expected to rapidly reheat the surface temperatures. This increased energy can lead to the rapid formation and intensification of storms, sometimes jumping hurricane categories in less than a day. With the likely La Niña weather pattern forming during peak hurricane season, forecasters are anticipating a robust environment for storm formation and intensification this year.
Experts are concerned by the unprecedented conditions that are contributing to an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. The warming ocean temperatures and the subsiding El Niño weather pattern are creating ideal conditions for storm formation and intensification. If El Niño subsides as expected and a La Niña forms during peak hurricane season, forecasters are anticipating a high likelihood of an above-average year for storms. The potential for record sea surface temperatures this hurricane season is expected to further enhance the environment for storms to develop and intensify. Ultimately, these conditions are leading to growing confidence among forecasting experts that this season could see a significantly high number of storms.
