Operatives working for the Chinese and Iranian governments created fake, AI-generated content to influence US voters during the 2020 election campaign. While the content was not publicly disseminated, the intelligence gathered by the National Security Agency shed light on China and Iran’s deepfake capabilities. Concerns over foreign powers exploiting artificial intelligence to mislead voters have grown as the technology for producing deepfake audio and video has become more accessible.
US officials held an exercise in which they considered how to respond to scenarios involving fake AI-generated content, highlighting the increasing concerns over foreign influence campaigns. FBI officials have warned that AI enhances the ability of foreign states to spread election misinformation. Despite preparations and intelligence gathered, it is still unclear why the deepfakes created by Chinese and Iranian operatives were not deployed during the 2020 election.
There was skepticism among US officials regarding the impact of deepfake technology on the 2020 presidential election. While the technology may not have been considered advanced enough to seriously impact the election, concerns remain over the potential threat posed by foreign adversaries developing deepfakes. The NSA continues to collect intelligence on this issue, particularly now that the technology has significantly advanced.
US officials have maintained visibility into the advancements made by countries like China, Iran, and Russia in AI and deepfake technology since the 2020 election. However, using this intelligence effectively within the US remains a challenge. The key question is how quickly anomalies can be identified and shared to counter adversaries operating within the US. This challenge underscores the ongoing race to address threats to election security.
The threat of deepfakes and foreign influence is expected to be a topic of discussion during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing. While Iranian operatives did not use their deepfakes in 2020, they did attempt to influence voters by imitating the Proud Boys group. The lack of faith in the capabilities or clear internal guidance suggests varying approaches by foreign actors in attempting to influence US elections.
While generative AI has made it easier for foreign actors to create content, distribution remains a significant challenge. Experts caution against overstating the impact of foreign influence operations, including those using AI, as it may benefit the propagandists themselves. Despite this, the US remains vulnerable to conspiracy theories, with a significant portion of the public questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election and showing low trust in government institutions. Looking ahead to the 2024 election, the war in Ukraine and US support for Kyiv could become focal points for foreign interference in American politics.
