The delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine may come too late to have a significant impact on Russia’s ongoing offensive in Kharkiv, experts have told Newsweek. Ukraine has recently been training pilots on the U.S.-made jets in anticipation of receiving deliveries from Western allies including Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium. However, experts suggest that relying on the F-16s to counter Russian forces may have been a strategic blunder, as Kyiv’s military would have been better off focusing on receiving more familiar aircraft in a shorter timeframe.
William Reno, a professor at Northwestern University, expressed skepticism about the timeframe for the delivery of the F-16 jets, noting that they may arrive after the optimal time for maximum effectiveness, similar to the delivery of Western tanks to Ukraine after a previous counteroffensive in 2022. Reno suggested that Ukraine could potentially achieve better battlefield results by quickly receiving older and cheaper aircraft from the Taliban instead. Guy McCardle, managing editor of military news outlet SOFREP, also agreed that boosting ongoing operations with MiG aircraft, which Ukrainian pilots are already familiar with, would have been a better strategy.
Ukrainian military officials have reported the evacuation of thousands of people from the northeastern region of Kharkiv as Russia continues its offensive and captures Ukrainian territory at an alarming rate. Moscow has warned that it will treat the F-16 jets as a nuclear-capable threat once they are received by Ukraine, viewing them as a purposeful provocation. Despite the impending arrival of the F-16s from Western allies, experts caution that the time taken for decision-making, training, and delivery allows Russian forces to adapt their air defenses, potentially limiting the jets’ utility on the battlefield.
The experts interviewed by Newsweek emphasized the importance of immediate air support for Ukraine in countering Russian advances, with McCardle stressing that having MiG aircraft on hand would be more effective than waiting for F-16s to arrive. McCardle highlighted the familiarity of Ukrainian pilots with MiGs and the ease of integration with existing logistics systems, suggesting that quick deployment of MiGs would provide an urgent boost to Ukraine’s air capabilities. The ongoing conflict in Kharkiv has seen Moscow take control of border villages while Ukrainian military officials work to evacuate civilians from the area.
As Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium prepare to deliver F-16 jets to Ukraine, there is uncertainty surrounding the timeline for their arrival and their potential effectiveness in countering Russian aggression. While the F-16s may benefit Ukraine in the long run, experts suggest that the country should focus on immediate air support with the currently available MiG aircraft, in order to better defend against Russian forces. As the conflict in Kharkiv escalates and civilian evacuations continue, the strategic decisions made regarding air support could play a crucial role in the outcome of the ongoing warfare between Ukraine and Russia.
