The Biden administration is concerned about Israel’s potential full-scale incursion into Rafah in Gaza, as it could have dire consequences for the region. The US has warned Israel against taking such a step, with President Biden stating that certain offensive weapons would be withheld if Israel were to carry out the incursion. Additionally, preparations have not been made to evacuate over one million Gazans in Rafah, further complicating the situation.
As the conflict enters its eighth month, US officials are questioning Israel’s approach to the war and its ability to achieve its stated goal of destroying Hamas. There are tensions between the US and Israel on what constitutes a victory in the conflict, with the US emphasizing the need for a political solution rather than a total victory on the battlefield. This differing perspective may impact future decisions made by both countries.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that Israel could inherit an insurgency or chaos in Rafah if a full-scale operation is carried out. While the US believes that Israel will be unable to completely destroy Hamas, it acknowledges that Israel has made progress in degrading the group’s capabilities. The US continues to assist Israel in targeting senior Hamas members, but the overall outcome of the conflict remains uncertain.
Despite ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration has not urged Israel to consider a permanent end to the fighting. Instead, there is increasing pressure on Israel to develop post-war plans for Gaza, which has thus far been met with little progress. Israel’s lack of interest in post-war governance and security arrangements has been a source of frustration for US officials.
US officials have emphasized the importance of Israel engaging more seriously in developing a plan for post-war Gaza, as the current lack of engagement has raised concerns about the future of the region. Without clear views from Israel on post-war governance and security, it is unclear how the conflict will eventually end. The US continues to work with Arab countries and others on these plans, stressing the need to prevent Hamas from governing Gaza in the future. The outcome of the conflict and the long-term implications for the region remain uncertain.
