Former President Trump has shown an advantage in five out of the six key battleground states where he was narrowly defeated by President Biden in the previous election. New polls conducted by the New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer suggest that issues such as discontent over the economy and the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza, along with a decline in support from younger, Black, and Hispanic voters, could potentially unravel President Biden’s Democratic coalition. Trump leads Biden among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with Biden holding a narrow lead in Wisconsin.
In a potential 2024 rematch between the two candidates, Trump leads Biden among likely voters in five states, with Biden only ahead in Michigan. Even when third-party and independent candidates are included in the polls, Trump still holds an advantage in most of these key battleground states. Notably, in these polls, Democrat turned independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental activist and vaccine skeptic, is shown to be drawing support from both Biden and Trump.
The latest surveys were conducted from April 28 to May 9 and come at a time when Trump is making history as the first current or former president to face a criminal trial. Despite ongoing developments and significant ad campaigns by the Biden campaign in the battleground states, the polls show little impact on the electorate’s overall dissatisfaction. Voters are expressing a desire for change, with many believing that major changes are needed in the country’s political and economic systems. Trump is gaining support among voters who previously backed Biden, including Black voters, Hispanic voters, and younger voters.
Although the economy has shown signs of recovery with strong job numbers and a booming stock market, inflation remains a concern for voters. However, President Biden is still holding his ground with older voters and White voters who are less likely to call for significant changes to the system. One potential issue for Trump is abortion, as a majority of voters, including those who support him, believe that abortion should be legal. The polls included over 4,000 voters across the six battleground states with a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 to 4.6 percentage points.
Overall, the polls indicate a close race between Trump and Biden with roughly six months to go until Election Day. Trump has gained traction in key battleground states, capitalizing on voter discontent over the economy and other issues. The surveys highlight a desire for change among voters and a perception that Trump could bring significant changes if reelected. Biden continues to appeal to older and White voters while facing challenges with younger voters and minority groups. Abortion remains a potential concern for Trump, as a majority of voters support it being legal. The outcome of the 2024 election remains uncertain as both candidates seek ways to secure support from a diverse electorate.
