China’s decision to abandon its zero-COVID program in December 2022 marked a significant shift in the country’s approach to the pandemic. The lifting of travel restrictions and quarantines, along with the cessation of testing and data collection related to COVID, was seen as a sign of victory by the Chinese government. Western experts initially anticipated an economic boom, with predictions of a rapid consumer revival and a surge in spending that would contribute to global growth.
However, the projected economic recovery did not materialize as expected. Data from July 2023 showed slower-than-expected growth in retail sales, industrial output, and investment, leading to deflationary pressure on China’s economy. The end of the zero-COVID policy did not mark the end of COVID in China, as infections surged and overwhelmed the healthcare system. Researchers warned of the risk of new variants emerging due to the rolling waves of infection.
Estimating the true impact of the pandemic in China has been challenging due to the government’s suppression of COVID data. Analysts have used various methods, including calculations of excess mortality, comparisons with other countries, and modeling based on demographic and economic data, to assess the number of deaths and serious illnesses caused by COVID. These estimates range from 1.5 to 2 million deaths through mid-2023, with some projections as high as 3.5 million.
Comparisons with similar countries like Hong Kong have shown significantly higher mortality rates in China, suggesting a more severe impact due to factors such as age demographics, low vaccination rates, and healthcare system deficiencies. The lack of accurate data from the Chinese government has made it difficult to fully understand the true toll of the pandemic on the population and the economy.
The suppression of COVID data in China has raised questions about the accuracy of official reports and the extent of the country’s COVID crisis. Anomalies in mortality figures and case-fatality rates compared to other countries with similar profiles have cast doubt on the credibility of Beijing’s claims of low COVID fatality rates. The active suppression of key data by the government may have contributed to the current economic slowdown in China, as resources were diverted to the healthcare system and away from productive uses.
Overall, China’s abandonment of the zero-COVID policy has had far-reaching consequences, with the true impact of the pandemic likely greater than official reports suggest. The lack of transparency in reporting COVID data has hindered efforts to fully understand the extent of the crisis and its implications for both public health and the economy. Research and analysis continue to shed light on the hidden toll of COVID in China and raise important questions about the country’s handling of the pandemic.
