Top American officials, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, have warned against an Israeli invasion of Rafah in the southern Gaza city. They predict that such an invasion would lead to widespread civilian casualties, spark a Hamas insurgency, and create a power vacuum that the terror group would later seek to fill. President Joe Biden has even threatened to pause certain weapons transfers if Israel goes ahead with the invasion.
Blinken and Sullivan both emphasized that President Biden does not want American weapons used in what they estimate would be a bloody and ill-advised operation. They also sought to refute claims that Biden was leaving Israel to fend for itself. Blinken mentioned that the US believes Israel has killed more civilians than Hamas terrorists in its war in Gaza and that Israel needs to do more to mitigate civilian deaths.
Despite American warnings against a ground invasion into Rafah dating back months, Israel seems poised to continue advancing on the city and has issued evacuation orders for civilians. Blinken warned that going headlong into Rafah could lead to dire consequences, including inheriting an insurgency with armed Hamas fighters or a vacuum filled by chaos and later by Hamas.
Sullivan also warned that an Israeli operation would result in significant civilian casualties while being unlikely to eliminate Hamas. This is a major reason why Biden determined that American weapons should not be used in a potential Rafah offensive. Blinken noted that Israel had resisted American advice for developing a post-war plan for Gaza, with the goal of ensuring that Hamas cannot govern the region again.
The State Department released a report last week finding it is reasonable to assess that US weapons have been used by Israeli forces in Gaza in ways that are inconsistent with international humanitarian law. However, the report stopped short of officially stating that Israel violated international law. Blinken emphasized that the US treats Israel like any other country and that making a full determination amid the war is difficult.
Blinken downplayed a growing rift between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stating that they are clear-eyed and speak the truth to each other. He mentioned that they have both American and Israeli interests in mind and while there may be differences in views and approaches, it is the nature of the relationship. The US continues to advocate for a resolution to the conflict that minimizes civilian casualties and works towards a sustainable peace in the region.
