Russian forces launched a risky push on Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region last week without factoring in the arrival of fresh military aid from the U.S., according to a new assessment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia had attempted to expand operations against his forces, prompting Kyiv to reinforce its positions in the Kharkiv region. Local officials in Kharkiv rushed to evacuate thousands of people from the region as reports of intensified shelling and attacks, including on the border city of Vovchansk, emerged.
The U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reported that Russian forces were attacking the region with limited resources, calling it a risky decision if the Kremlin believed Kyiv could threaten this force before it could strengthen its presence in northeastern Ukraine. Russia has only committed a limited amount of combat power to offensive operations in the area, the ISW noted. Despite the resumption of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine, Russia has not significantly increased its offensive presence in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported that Russia dropped guided aerial bombs around Vovchansk and attempted to break through defensive lines with armored vehicles. Reserve forces have been mobilized towards Kharkiv in response to the heightened aggression from Russian forces. Russia had taken control of five settlements in the Kharkiv region, including villages along the border with Russia, after offensive actions. More than 4,000 people had been evacuated from the region, according to the head of the Kharkiv regional administration.
Russian forces have been focusing their efforts on the eastern Donetsk region in recent months, slowly making gains west of captured Ukrainian cities. Ukraine’s defense forces are working to maintain defensive borders and positions in the face of increased aggression in the Kharkiv region. The ISW stated that Russian forces may pull reserves to intensify ongoing offensive operations in the area, but lack the necessary manpower for a large-scale offensive operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv city. Russia hopes to draw Ukrainian resources away from other parts of the front line and move closer to the city of Kharkiv, according to the ISW.
As the situation in the Kharkiv region escalates, Ukraine remains heavily reliant on Western aid deliveries to support its defense against Russian aggression. The U.S. Congress approved significant new military aid for Ukraine after months of indecision, signaling increased support for Kyiv in its conflict with Russia. Russia is targeting Ukraine’s domestic defense infrastructure, prompting Kyiv to bolster its positions in the Kharkiv region and carry out counteroffensive operations along the border. Despite the challenging situation, Ukraine’s Defense Forces are working to protect the region and resist Russian advances as the conflict intensifies.
