Joe Biden’s Democratic base has been divided over the Israel-Hamas war, with the public giving him some of his worst approval ratings for his handling of the conflict. Demonstrations against the war in Gaza are reminiscent of protests seen during the Vietnam War or the anti-apartheid movement in the 1980s. However, recent polling indicates that the war in the Middle East and related divisions at home are not likely to be the top issue deciding the 2024 election.
Polls show that only a small percentage of voters would base their vote on candidates’ stance on the Israel-Hamas war. Issues like protecting democracy, immigration, and abortion were ranked much higher in terms of importance among voters. In a Gallup poll, immigration was listed as the most important problem facing the nation by 27% of respondents, while only 2% mentioned the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Comparing the current situation to the Vietnam War in 1968, the importance of the Israel-Hamas war is significantly lower. During the Vietnam War, over 40% of Americans regularly listed it as the most important problem, while in the current conflict, only 2% prioritize it. This is likely due to the absence of American troops on the ground in the Israel-Hamas conflict, unlike the Vietnam War.
As Biden’s job approval numbers remain stable, his standing against former President Donald Trump is about the same as it was before the conflict in October. However, Biden faces challenges with younger voters, who are more likely to disapprove of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. This drop in support among young voters could impact the election outcome, given how close the race currently is.
The parallels between current campus protests against the war and past movements against South Africa’s apartheid government are not evident in polling. While the sentiment overwhelmingly favored the Black South African population in the 1980s, in the current conflict, more Americans sympathize with Israelis over Palestinians. This presents a challenge for Biden, as taking a stance more favorable to one side could alienate voters sympathetic to the other.
Overall, the polling data suggests that Biden faces a difficult task in navigating the Israel-Hamas conflict, as it is not a top priority issue for most Americans. Balancing support for both Israelis and Palestinians while considering the preferences of younger voters poses a significant challenge for Biden as he seeks to defeat Trump in the 2024 election.
