The key question for the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia is what to do next in finalizing their mutual defense treaty. While they are 90% done with the agreement, there are still important points to be clarified, such as the U.S. control over Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear energy program, the structure of the mutual defense component, and a long-term commitment to pricing oil in U.S. dollars. Another critical aspect of the deal is for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, contingent on Israel meeting certain conditions related to Gaza, West Bank settlements, and the establishment of a Palestinian state.
However, there are many uncertainties and challenges in this equation, particularly with Prime Minister Netanyahu aligning with the far right in Israel. It is unlikely that Netanyahu would agree to Palestinian statehood that would threaten his political survival. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are contemplating finalizing the deal and presenting it to Congress with the condition that Saudi normalization with Israel will only occur once Israel meets the agreed-upon terms. The current turmoil in Israel makes it difficult to engage Israelis in considering the potential benefits of normalized relations with Saudi Arabia and a pathway to peace with the Palestinians.
The hope is that an end to the current fighting and a return of all Israelis taken hostage will lead to new elections in Israel. This may provide an opportunity for Israelis to choose between supporting Netanyahu or pursuing a credible pathway to peace with Saudi Arabia and the Palestinians. However, no decision has been made yet, and the complex and ever-changing political landscape in Israel adds further uncertainty to the situation. Ultimately, the success of the deal and the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel hinges on various factors coming together in a timely manner.
The Biden administration and Saudi officials are well aware of the challenges ahead and the many obstacles that must be overcome. It is crucial for all parties involved to carefully navigate the complexities of the situation and work towards finding a sustainable and peaceful solution. The potential benefits of normalized relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel are significant and could have far-reaching implications for the region as a whole. However, achieving this goal will require patience, diplomacy, and a willingness to engage in difficult conversations and negotiations.
In conclusion, the road ahead for the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Palestinians is filled with uncertainties and challenges. The delicate balance of various interests and competing priorities must be carefully managed in order to reach a mutually acceptable agreement. The hope is that through dialogue, cooperation, and a commitment to peace, a pathway towards normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel can be established. However, it will require bold leadership, political will, and a willingness to make difficult compromises in order to achieve lasting peace and stability in the Middle East.
