The 2024 budget released by the Trudeau government focuses on bringing “fairness for every generation” through billions in spending on housing and a new capital gains tax on the wealthy. The goal of this budget is to appeal to younger voters, particularly millennials and Gen Z, in an effort to secure support for the upcoming election. However, former Liberal deputy prime minister John Manley believes that this spending may not be enough to keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in power, citing the “Seinfeld theory of political longevity” which suggests that after a certain number of “seasons,” voters may be seeking something new.
Manley points to the limited political longevity of past leaders such as Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien, and Stephen Harper, as well as international leaders like Charles de Gaulle and Margaret Thatcher. He believes that Trudeau may have reached his limit in terms of how long voters are willing to support him, despite his efforts to appeal to younger voters through measures like increased spending on housing. With issues such as the housing crisis, economic uncertainty, and lack of affordable housing plaguing millennials and Gen Z, Trudeau is facing an uphill battle to win back their support.
Former Conservative deputy leader Lisa Raitt also emphasizes the importance of addressing the housing crisis in order to retain young people and attract investment. She notes that housing is a key issue for young voters and a priority for any government seeking to appeal to this demographic. However, recent polling suggests that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is gaining support among young voters, indicating that Trudeau may have some work to do to win back their trust.
Trudeau has introduced a number of measures in the budget aimed at appealing to younger voters, including funding for housing, free contraceptives, and the “right to disconnect.” However, former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page notes that the prime minister’s focus has shifted from “strengthening the middle class” to promoting fairness across generations. Despite these efforts, Manley believes that Trudeau’s appeal to millennials and Gen Z may be a “tough sell” for Canadians who are tired of the political status quo.
Overall, the 2024 budget released by the Trudeau government is focused on addressing issues that are important to younger voters, such as housing affordability and economic uncertainty. While these measures may have some appeal to millennials and Gen Z, there are concerns that they may not be enough to secure Trudeau’s position in the upcoming election. With Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre gaining support among young voters, Trudeau faces a challenging road ahead in winning back their trust and securing their votes in the upcoming election.
