Over the course of more than two years of war in Ukraine, Russia has lost approximately 10 percent of its aircraft fleet, according to General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of the U.S. European Command and NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe. Despite these losses, Moscow’s military has not suffered a significant overall capacity decrease in key areas such as strategic forces, space capabilities, and long-range aviation. The Ukrainian military reports that Russia has lost 347 aircraft and 325 helicopters since February 2022, although these figures have not been independently verified. Russia’s recent aircraft losses have led to speculation that they may be struggling to replace these losses at the same rate.
Nicholas Aucott, a senior military adviser with the U.K. government, noted that the repeated destruction of Russian warplanes is a significant setback for Moscow’s war effort. Russia is reportedly losing jets at a rate 20 times faster than they can replace them. However, Russia has put its defense industry on a war footing, and may be able to replenish its losses sustained in Ukraine. Moscow’s land forces have borne the brunt of the effects of the war, but the Russian military has been reconstituting its forces at a faster rate than initially estimated. Russia’s army has also grown by 15 percent since February 2022, indicating the country’s ability to bounce back from losses.
General Cavoli expressed concern over the Russian military’s growing ability to learn and adapt to battlefield challenges, evolving into a more capable and efficient force compared to when it first invaded Ukraine. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell also remarked that Russia has almost completely reconstituted itself militarily in recent months. This has raised concerns that Russia may be preparing to intensify offensive operations in eastern Ukraine or potentially initiate new offensives along the frontline. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned of a potential new offensive from Russia as early as May, emphasizing the importance of Western military aid in defending against such attacks.
As the threat of a new Russian offensive looms over Ukraine, the country’s ability to fend off advances relies heavily on Western military aid. The current state of Ukraine’s aerial fleet is difficult to ascertain, with conflicting reports from Russia and Ukraine regarding aircraft losses. Ukraine has been waiting for deliveries of Western-made F-16 fighter jets promised to them last year, which could help replace their lost aircraft. However, experts caution that these new jets may not be able to make a significant difference along the frontline in the face of potential Russian aggression. The delays in receiving military aid underscore the precarious situation Ukraine finds itself in as it prepares for potential further conflict with Russia.
