Americans have been saving less money in recent years, with the personal savings rate falling to 3.6% in February, the lowest level in over a year. This trend of decreasing savings has been ongoing since the decade prior to 2022, with Americans consistently saving less after each recession. The analysis from Wells Fargo economists shows that the only exception to this trend was during the economic expansion after the Great Recession, where people actually saved more than in the previous cycle due to the economic pain felt during the 2008 downturn. However, the dynamics have since changed, with pandemic-related stimulus and reduced spending during shutdowns leading to increased saving rates and improved household finances.
Despite the positive effects on consumer spending from lower saving rates, it also leaves households vulnerable, especially those with lower incomes. Economists believe that households not saving at historical rates could lead to increased financial vulnerability in the event of a downturn or shock to the economy. Data from Moody’s Analytics shows that lower income consumers have negative savings, meaning they are spending more than they earn on a monthly basis, making them more dependent on their income. This unique cycle of decreased savings and increased spending on credit or missed asset purchases could leave this group at risk during a financial downturn.
The lower saving rates reflect a shift in consumer behavior towards higher spending, even as they have adjusted other financial strategies to maintain this pattern. During the pandemic, forced saving due to reduced spending on services led to households having more money to spend post-lockdown. This pent-up demand for services resulted in continued high levels of spending, combined with increased reliance on income and other financial assets to maintain spending levels. Changes in spending patterns, increased reliance on credit, and decreased savings indicate a shift in consumer psyche towards maintaining current spending levels rather than saving for the future.
In response to high levels of burnout among workers, some companies are considering implementing shorter workweeks, such as four-day or four-and-a-half-day schedules. A KPMG survey of CEOs shows that nearly one-third of large US companies are exploring new work schedule shifts to attract and retain talent in a competitive job market where many employees feel overworked and underpaid. Studies have shown that a four-day workweek can have positive impacts on worker wellbeing and productivity, with a Gallup poll indicating that 77% of US workers believe a four-day schedule would have a positive impact on their wellbeing.
Looking ahead, upcoming economic data and earnings reports will provide insights into the state of the economy and financial markets. Key events include the release of March retail sales figures and housing market data, as well as earnings reports from major companies like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble. Federal Reserve officials will also deliver remarks, providing further context on the current economic environment and potential policy actions. Overall, the trend of decreasing savings rates and shifting consumer behaviors will continue to influence economic outcomes in the coming months.
