Canada has once again found itself on the outside looking in after some of its closest allies, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, announced the next phase of their new AUKUS security pact aimed at countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Despite Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressing interest in potentially joining the pact in the future, Canada was not mentioned as a prospective partner in the latest phase of AUKUS. Experts believe that even if expansion is possible, Canada is unlikely to be invited due to its close alignment with the United States and existing military capabilities.
The first phase of the AUKUS pact focused on providing nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, in order to modernize its fleet and enhance military capabilities. The second phase aims to share military technology and collaborate on projects related to quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and cyber technology. Japan has been singled out as a possible partner for advanced capabilities projects due to its technological advancements and close defense partnership with the three core AUKUS countries. However, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese clarified that there are no plans to add a fourth member to the pact.
While Canada may collaborate closely with AUKUS in the future, experts believe that Canada is not currently in a position to contribute as an equal partner even if invited to join the alliance. Canada’s defense policy update announced an additional $8.1 billion in spending over the next five years, bringing the defense spending to 1.76% of GDP by 2030, still below NATO’s target threshold of two percent. The policy focuses on Arctic security, cyberattacks, and technological warfare, addressing the threats posed by China, Russia, and other hostile actors. The Canadian Armed Forces are also working to enhance their cyber capabilities in collaboration with the Communications Security Establishment.
The announcement of the AUKUS alliance has raised concerns in China, with suggestions that it could spark a regional arms race. China has criticized the pact for destabilizing the region and urged caution in defense-related matters, particularly for countries like Japan with a history of military aggression. Despite Canada’s interest in potentially joining AUKUS and collaborating with its members, experts believe that Canada’s defense capabilities and ongoing procurement issues may prevent it from being considered as a formal member of the alliance. The focus on modernizing military systems to stay ahead of adversaries poses a challenge for Canada, given the country’s current defense spending levels and procurement delays.
The strategic importance of the AUKUS alliance lies in its aim to enhance military capabilities through technological advancements and collaboration on projects related to defense innovation. While Canada has expressed interest in working with AUKUS members and potentially joining the alliance, it remains unclear if Canada will be invited to participate in the pact in a formal capacity. The focus on strengthening defense partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region aligns with Canada’s broader foreign policy objectives, particularly in light of increasing geopolitical tensions and security threats in the region. As Canada continues to assess its defense priorities and capabilities, collaboration with AUKUS and other regional partners may provide opportunities for enhancing its defense technology and capabilities in line with evolving security challenges.
