Two outside groups aligned with longtime Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell have reported an impressive fundraising haul of over $51 million in the past three months as Republicans strive to regain the majority in November’s elections. The Senate Leadership Fund, the top super PAC backing Senate Republican incumbents and candidates, raised $24.4 million in the first quarter of 2024, while the affiliated non-profit public advocacy group One Nation raised $26.99 million. This combined amount represents a first-quarter fundraising record for the groups and is a significant increase from their earnings in the 2022 election cycle.
The substantial fundraising success of One Nation, which more than doubled its earnings compared to the previous election cycle, and the Senate Leadership Fund, which matched its 2022 first quarter haul, highlights the importance of the battle for the Senate in this election cycle. With Senate Majority Leader McConnell planning to step down from his leadership position after the November elections, these groups are working diligently to ensure Republicans secure a lasting Senate majority come January 2025. The Senate Leadership Fund reported $59.5 million cash-on-hand as of April 1, while One Nation had $83 million in its coffers.
As the top outside group supporting Senate Democrats, the Senate Majority PAC, aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, has yet to release its first-quarter fundraising figures. Democrats currently hold a slim 51-49 majority in the chamber, including three independent senators who caucus with the Democratic conference. This means that Republicans only need a net gain of one or two seats to retake the majority, depending on the outcome of the presidential election.
The potential for the GOP to regain the majority in the Senate in 2024 appears promising due to the math and the map favoring Republicans. Democrats are defending 23 of the 34 seats up for election, with several of them in red states that former President Trump won in 2020. Furthermore, key swing states narrowly carried by President Biden in 2020, including Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, also feature Democratic-held seats up for grabs. In Maryland, Senate Republicans have recruited popular former GOP Governor Larry Hogan, signaling further potential gains for the party.
In addition to the Democratic-held seats at stake in swing states, Texas and Florida present potential opportunities for competitive races as incumbent Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott seek re-election. However, these states are currently the only GOP-held seats that could potentially be in play come November. With Republicans strategically eyeing these key Senate races across the country, the fundraising success of groups aligned with McConnell underscores the intensity and significance of this election cycle in determining the future Senate majority. Voter turnout and support in key battleground states will be crucial factors in determining the outcome of the 2024 Senate elections.
