Colorado State University (CSU) is predicting an ‘extremely active’ hurricane season for 2024, with a forecast of 11 hurricanes, the most ever predicted by the expert unit since it began issuing an April outlook in 1995. This prediction is based on a combination of factors, including record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which provide ideal conditions for hurricane formation. Additionally, the switch to La Niña conditions is expected to reduce westerly winds across the Caribbean, decreasing wind shear and further favoring hurricane development.
The forecast team at CSU is predicting a total of 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with 11 of those storms expected to become hurricanes and five reaching major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Historical hurricane records indicate similarities to active seasons in 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020, all of which were very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. This year’s prediction represents a significant increase compared to previous years, with the researchers expecting hurricane activity to be about 170 percent of the average season from 1991-2020.
Residents along the US coastline and in the Caribbean are advised to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season, as there is a high likelihood of major hurricanes making landfall. The report calculates probabilities of major hurricanes hitting various areas, with a 62 percent likelihood of a major hurricane hitting the entire US coastline and a 66 percent chance for Caribbean residents. The probabilities of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes tracking near specific regions are also provided by the forecast team to help residents understand the potential risks.
The two key factors driving the forecast for an active hurricane season are the record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the transition to La Niña conditions. A warm Atlantic ocean leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, creating ideal conditions for hurricane formation. La Niña conditions are expected to reduce wind shear across the Caribbean, further enhancing the chances of hurricanes forming. These combined signals have led the forecast team to have a higher-than-normal confidence in predicting an active hurricane season for 2024.
As with any weather forecast, there is still a high degree of uncertainty, and atmospheric conditions can change between April and peak hurricane season. Further updates on hurricane activity are scheduled for June 11, July 9, and August 6 to provide the most up-to-date information to residents and emergency responders. The researchers stress the importance of proper preparedness and precautions for coastal residents, as it only takes one storm to make a season particularly active in a specific area. The potential impacts of hurricanes on communities can be significant, both in terms of lives lost and economic damage caused, making early preparation crucial for ensuring safety and resilience.
