In the midst of rising regional tensions, Somaliland will hold its fourth general election since breaking away from Somalia in 1991. Despite having its own government, parliament, and other features of an independent country, Somaliland’s sovereignty is not recognised internationally. Incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi is seeking re-election, facing a challenge from former parliament speaker Abdirahman “Irro” Mohamed Abdullahi. The key issues in the election include the cost of living and territorial tensions with rebels in Las Anod claimed by Puntland.
The election is also influenced by the candidates’ international weight, particularly in relation to the port-for-recognition memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between President Abdi and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The deal would allow Ethiopia to use Somaliland’s Red Sea port of Berbera in exchange for an assessment of Somaliland’s quest for official recognition. The historic MOU has strained relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, with other countries such as Egypt and Turkey getting involved. The outcome of the deal remains uncertain, with no official date set for its implementation.
Ethiopia’s interest in the port deal stems from its desire for direct access to important maritime routes and the Red Sea. The agreement would grant Ethiopia a lease of the Berbera Port for 50 years, with additional commercial and naval operations capabilities. Official recognition from Ethiopia could lead to global recognition for Somaliland and increased trade opportunities. President Abdi sees the deal as an economic game-changer that could generate significant revenue for Somaliland.
Following the announcement of the port deal, Somalia expressed outrage, declaring it as a transgression by Ethiopia and vowing to protect its sovereignty. Egypt, a longtime rival of Ethiopia, has backed Somalia through a military pact and provided support to bolster its security. Tensions have escalated, with regional powers positioning themselves for potential conflicts. Turkey has attempted to mediate talks between the parties, although progress has been limited.
Analysts warn that the situation could escalate into direct military confrontation between Ethiopia and Egypt if tensions are not reduced. Despite pressure to delay recognition of Somaliland in light of the port deal, Ethiopia has not taken further significant steps towards implementing the agreement. Somaliland remains firm on its stance that recognition is a prerequisite for cooperation, emphasizing the importance of international recognition for the deal to move forward. Amidst the regional dynamics and power shifts, the port deal and the quest for recognition hold significant implications for Somaliland’s future.
